LOOKING AHEAD

LOOKING AHEAD
Monday, April 6, 2009

Zach Sheinberg

And I thought once the 2008 election season ended, the news media would have nothing else to discuss! In reality, it is possible that the news media have never had more to talk about.

Following the election, they covered the cabinet nominations, even helped to derail several of them, most notably those of former Health and Human Services Secretary designate Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) and former Commerce Secretary designate Bill Richardson (D-N.M.).

What else happened? Well, the economy imploded. Unemployment skyrocketed. Congress negotiated a stimulus package. Treasury Secretary Geithner rolled out a massive bank bailout. The auto companies came back to drink from the federal money trough. AIG infuriated Congress by paying bonuses out of bailout money. The Obama Administration announced plans to close the prison at Guantanamo, allow the news to videotape coffins returning from Iraq and Afghanistan (with the permission of the family of the deceased) and accelerate the increase of fuel standards. Somehow Jack Bauer is still alive. And probably, as we speak, headed to North Korea to deal with Kim Jong Il’s recent missile launch.

But alas, there is good news! Sarah Palin has formed a political action committee called SarahPAC in advance of a 2012 run for President! In related news, I am taking golf lessons so I can qualify for the Q School and join the PGA Tour.

As Palin 2012 gets geared up, let’s take a look at what else is happening in the world of elections.

Senate

Less than three months into the 111th Congress, five Republican Senators have already announced plans for retirement in 2010, four of them in swing states. Those off to greener pastures are:

Mel Martinez (R-FL): These days, Florida politics seems akin to coaching changes in the NFL. People move around, but never actually leave. Rumors abound that Governor Charlie Crist (R-FL) will not seek reelection and will instead run for the open Senate seat and that former Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL), who was term-limited in 2006 (the Governor cannot serve more than two consecutive terms), will seek to recapture his old position as Governor in 2010. On the Democratic side, leading candidates for Senate include Congressmen Ron Klein and Kendrick Meek. With Governor Crist in the race, this seat leans slightly Republican.

Sam Brownback (R-KS): No Republican majority means no Republican committee chairs. Which means Republicans actually have to work with Democrats to legislate. Sorry, Rush. But not Brownback, who is retiring to run in the open-seat contest for Governor of Kansas in 2010. Health and Human Services Secretary designate, Kathleen Sebellius, a Democrat, is term-limited in 2010. Republican Congressmen Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt and former Democratic Congresswoman Nancy Boyda are all looking at the open Senate race. This seat is still safe for Republicans.

Judd Gregg (R-N.H.): You might recognize Judd Gregg from his brief stint as President Obama’s nominee to become Commerce Secretary, who then withdrew because his views were irreconcilable with the Obama Administration. Seems like someone forgot that the United States just elected a DEMOCRAT to the White House who made clear his intention to spend TRILLIONS of dollars to right the economy. Not only do Senators not read the bills on which they vote, but also apparently some do not ever read the news. Sophomore Democratic Congressman Paul Hodes is the likely Democratic nominee. The Republican field is wide open. Former Senator Bob Smith, who lost the 2002 Republican nomination to John Sununu, Jr., who then moved to Florida and considered running for Senate there, is back in New Hampshire looking at the race. Why? Because former Senator John Sununu, Jr., who lost reelection to Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) in 2008, is considering running in 2010. And what better way to settle a political score than to derail the chances of an opponent winning an election. In 2010, Democrats have the edge to pick up this seat. On a totally unrelated side note, former Senator Bob Smith looks a lot like the Mayor in Police Academy 6, actor Kenneth Mars, who also played Inspector Kemp in Young Frankenstein.

Kit Bond (R-MO): Democrat Jay Nixon won the race for Governor in 2008. Democrat Claire McCaskill ousted former Senator Jim Talent (for not winning elections)* in 2006. Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D-MO), daughter of former Missouri Governor Mel Carnahan and former Senator Jean Carnahan and sister of Congressman Russ Carnahan (D-MO), is the likely Democratic nominee. Republican Roy Blunt, father of former Governor Matt Blunt (R-MO) is a leading candidate for the Republican nomination. Does this not remind anyone of the Capulets and Montagues? This race is a toss-up.

George Voinovich (R-OH): There is no shortage of interest in this seat. Although luckily for all, Dennis Kucinich is not interested. Obama won Ohio in the 2008 Presidential Election and in 2006, Sherrod Brown (D-OH) ousted former Senator Mike DeWine (R-OH) and Ted Strickland (D-OH) won the open seat race for Governor. This race is also a toss-up.

In Other Senate News

Alaska: The U.S. Department of Justice is going to drop all charges against former Senator Ted Stevens (R-AK) due to prosecutorial misconduct. Governor Sarah Palin, now safely tucked back away in Juneau, Alaska, immediately called for Senator Mark Begich, who defeated Stevens in 2008 Senate race, to step down and stand for a rematch against Stevens. In related news, former Vice President Al Gore has demanded a redo of the 2000 Presidential Election because he still cannot understand how he lost to George W. Bush.

Arizona: Senator John McCain (R-AZ) has decided to seek reelection in 2010. He will be 126 years old.

California: Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R-CA) has announced her intention to explore a campaign against Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) in 2010.

Connecticut: Democrat Chris Dodd, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, has come under fire for a sweetheart loan he received from Countrywide (along with colleague Kent Conrad (D-N.D.)). Really? The Democrats are corrupt too? Polls show him highly vulnerable for reelection in 2010. Former Congressman Rob Simmons (R-CT), who lost reelection in 2006, is the frontrunner for the Republican nomination.

Illinois: Who would have thought that freshman Senator Roland Burris (D-IL), appointed by former Illinois Governor Rod Blagoyevxszqxich, would run into problems? Hmmm. Oh yes, everyone. While Burris likely will make it through the last two years of President Obama’s Senate term, he definitely should not do any major renovations in his office. Bill Daley (D-IL), former Commerce Secretary under Bill Clinton and brother of long-time Chicago Mayor Richard Daley, intends to challenge Burris in a primary. Other Democrats are considering the race too. In January of 2011, Burris will be rolanding back to Illinois. In related news, former Governor Blagoyevxszqxich was just indicted.

Kentucky: 78-year-old Senator Jim Bunning (R-KY), who narrowly won reelection in 2004 over now Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo and makes frequent verbal gaffes, looks headed for trouble in 2010. He will face either Mongiardo or another well-funded Democrat. And with less than $150,000 cash on hand at the moment, Bunning either has to step on the fundraising gas pedal or prepare to head out to the bluegrass pasture. One recent gaffe made by the Senator was a prediction that Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg would be dead in nine months. In the future, Senator Bunning, first think, then still keep quiet.

Louisiana: Another possible trouble spot for Republicans in 2010 is Louisiana. Yes, Louisiana is actually trending more Republican, bucking the trend of most of the rest of the country. Unfortunately, no matter how more liberal America becomes, it will still raise an eyebrow to a United States Senator caught in a prostitution ring and look down upon a United States Senator who blows up at an airport and says something like, “Do you know who I am?” I remember kids who did that in college. The bouncer still did not let them into the bar while everyone else got in. Senator Vitter, a piece of advice. That never works. And just makes you look like an a**hole. Maybe hit the brothel before heading to the airport next time to blow off some steam.

Minnesota: Still, the 2008 Minnesota Senate race is unsettled. Although Republicans generally concede that it is just a matter of time before Democrat Al Franken becomes the next United States Senator from Minnesota. The same Republicans also hinted that Franken would be assigned the same office assigned to freshman Representative Jeff Johnson in The Distinguished Gentleman.

New York: Newly appointed Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, appointed to the seat vacated by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, seems likely to face a tough primary challenge in 2010, probably from Congresswoman Carolyn McCarthy (D-N.Y.). Gillibrand is a big supporter of gun rights, while Representative McCarthy lost her husband and her son was seriously injured when Colin Ferguson opened fire on a Long Island Railroad Train in 1993. So McCarthy has a very real personal reason for challenging Gillibrand. Republicans exploring the race are Congressman Peter King (R-N.Y.), former Chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, and former Governor George Pataki (R-N.Y.). Fran Drescher is also looking at the race. Hopefully, she does not do any radio commercials herself.

Pennsylvania: After voting for cloture and the Obama stimulus package, Senator Arlen Specter (R-PA) has come under tremendous pressure from conservatives. Former Congressman Pat Toomey (R-PA), who now serves as President of the Club for Growth and who narrowly lost to Specter in the Republican primary in 2004, announced that he will challenge Specter again in 2010. Specter, a cancer survivor, has rebuffed overtures of the Democrat leadership to switch parties. It is unclear how the 2010 Pennsylvania Senate race will turn out.

House of Representatives

Retirements: Representative Hilda Solis (D-CA) has resigned to become the Secretary of Labor. Representative Ellen Tauscher (D-CA) has resigned to become the Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security. Representative Adam Putnam (R-FL), the former #3 in the Republican House Leadership, will not seek reelection in 2010 because he is running for State Agriculture Commissioner in Florida. Why? Apparently DC is no fun anymore for Republicans.

New England: With the reelection loss of former Congressman Christopher Shays (R-CT), New England now has zero Republican members of the House of Representatives.

New York’s 20th District: The election to replace now Senator Kirsten Gillibrand was held last Tuesday, but there is no winner yet. Republican Jim Tedisco was favored in this conservative leaning-district up until the very end when Democrat Scott Murphy surged in the polls. The race is likely to end up in court, right where elections should be decided (I am kidding).

Governors

New Jersey: Governor Jon Corzine (D-N.J.) has a tough 2009 reelection race ahead of him. His likely opponent, former United States Attorney for the District of New Jersey and Republican, Christopher Christie (not to be confused with Florida’s Governor, Charlie Crist or NBA player Doug Christie), is polling ahead of Corzine. But if the wealthy former Goldman Sachs CEO Corzine does what he promised to do before the 2005 gubernatorial election (i.e. spend “whatever it takes”), this race will come down to the wire.

New York: Recent polls show that Governor David Patterson (D-N.Y.), who assumed office after former Governor Eliot Spitzer resigned for, well, you know why, has approval ratings lower than George W. Republican Rudy Giuliani (R-N.Y.) and State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D-N.Y.) are both likely to challenge Patterson, in the general election and Democratic primary, respectively.

Virginia: Former DNC Chair and Clinton confidante, Terry McAuliffe, is seeking the Democratic nomination for Governor. At a recent dinner, McAuliffe got into a verbal spat with one of his primary opponents, ex-State House Democratic Caucus Chair Brian Moran. While giving his speech, McAuliffe mentioned how Moran’s campaign advisor, Joe Trippi (who orchestrated Howard Dean’s rise and fall Presidential campaign in 2004), approached McAuliffe to work for him in the gubernatorial race and that McAuliffe responded by telling him that if Trippi really wanted to help him, that he should go work for Brian and do what he did for “President Dean.” Moran responded by asking how President Hillary Clinton was. I am glad to see that only mature adults run for office.

International

Israel: Last Tuesday, Israel’s new government, led by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, took office. Netanyahu, of the Likud Party, rejects the idea of a two-state solution. His position should lead to an interesting meeting in Washington in May with President Obama and Secretary Clinton, who favor a two-state solution.

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Notes

* Former Republican Senator Jim Talent ran for Governor of Missouri in 2000. He lost. In 2002, he won election to the Senate to serve out the remaining four years of former Governor Mel Carnahan’s (D-MO) term. Carnahan died in a plane crash before the 2000 election and never served a day in the Senate. Talent then lost his reelection race to McCaskill in 2006.
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Sources

NYTimes.com: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/13/opinion/13clemens.html
CNN.com: http://www.cnn.com/
Politics1: http://www.politics1.com
Political Graveyard: www.politicalgraveyard.com