THE DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES

Thursday, February 4, 2010

Zach Sheinberg

Luckily for Democrats, Election Day 2010 is not today. Nor next month.

The only word that comes to mind when I think of the goodwill that the Democratic Party has squandered over the last year is bewilderment. Or two words: shock and awe. Not because the Democrats have lost goodwill. That was inevitable. But that they have lost this much goodwill so quickly.

At the end of the 110th Congress, the composition of the United States Senate was 51 Democrats (which included Senator Bernard Sanders, Independent of Vermont, and Senator Joseph Lieberman, Independent Democrat of Connecticut, both of whom caucus with the Senate Democrats) and 49 Republicans. Election 2008 not only elected a Democrat in Barack Obama to the White House, but also increased the Democratic majority in the U. S. Senate to 59. The number became 60 when Republican Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania switched to the Democratic Party in 2009.

To be explicitly clear, in 2008, the Democratic Party gained 8 seats. That is not an insignificant number. Given that only a third of the 100 United States Senate seats are up for election in each election cycle (although in 2008, 35 seats were up for election because of special elections in Mississippi and Wyoming), netting 8 seats is, as a Wharton statistics professor might say, statistically significant.

Similar swings have occurred only four other times since John F. Kennedy won the White House in 1960. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s 1994 Republican Revolution propelled 9 new Republicans into the world’s most exclusive club; the Democrats netted 8 seats in 1986, although this was likely the result of the reversal of the Reagan Revolution in 1980, where the Republicans picked up 12 Senate seats and took control of the chamber for the first time since 1954. (In fact, between the election to the Presidency of Franklin Roosevelt in 1932 and the Republican Revolution in 1994, the Republicans only controlled the United States Senate for a grand total of 10 years.) The fourth time, when the Republicans gained 7 seats in 1968, did not result in a change of power in the Senate (the Democrats dropped from 64 to 57 seats).

I know. I’m boring you to tears with all of these numbers. My point is that picking up 8 seats is significant.

Large swings happen infrequently and are the result of the actions of a large group of disaffected voters, whose disaffection with the party in power has accumulated over a number of years. Although most power shifts are short-lived because in any given period of time, the power shift to the minority power occurs in a period dominated by a majority power. These are only fleeting political shifts, simply temporary reversions to the minority (this phenomenon originated with one or more political scholars whose name(s) I do not recall).

The Presidential Election of 1932 swept Democrats into the White House and Congress. The Democratic Governor of New York, Franklin Roosevelt, captured the White House. The Democrats picked up 12 seats in the Senate for a total of 59 and 97 seats in the House of Representatives for a total of 313. No doubt, voters were disaffected by the onset of the Great Depression. This Democratic sweep represented a lasting political shift, which I would argue lasted until the Republican Revolution in 1994 (which had its roots in the 1980 Reagan Revolution).

The Roosevelt shift to the left followed the Lincoln shift to the right of 1860, the result of the north versus south issues that led to the Civil War and later Reconstruction. The Lincoln shift lasted 72 years and took the Great Depression to undo.

Between 1932 and 1994, America was a left-of-center, Democratic country. While a Democrat occupied the White House for only about half of the 62 years in the period (34 years), Democrats dominated the Senate for 52 years and the House for 58 years.

In 1994, the conservative shift that began with the election of the former California Governor, Republican Ronald Reagan, in 1980, culminated in a Republican takeover of Congress that lasted 12 years. The Republican Revolution of 1994 was a lasting political shift.

So the obvious question is, did the election of Barack Obama, which was preceded by 2 years the Democratic takeover of both houses of Congress in 2006, represent a new lasting political shift, or simply a temporary reversion to the minority that the Republicans in Congress experienced several times between 1932 and 1994 in the midst of the American Democratic majority?

My guess is that we still live in a right-of-center, Republican country. After the Republicans took control of the Senate in 1980, it took the Democrats 3 election cycles (6 years) to regain control.

If we do in fact still live in a right-of-center country, the next question is, how long until the Republicans regain control of Congress?

I offer the unsatisfying answer of, “I don’t know.”

But let us take a look at the 2010 elections and see where they might leave the Democrats in Congress 10 months from now. I will examine only the Senate races because 10 months is too much lead-time for me to get a feel for the 435 House races with any reasonable degree of accuracy.

To recap, the current Senate composition is 57 Democrats, 42 Republicans and 2 Independents that caucus with the Democrats (effectively giving the Democrats 59 Senate seats).

Let’s start with Massachusetts. Earlier today, Republican Scott Brown was sworn in as the newest United States Senator, elected on January 19th to succeed the late Senator Edward M. Kennedy, Democrat of Massachusetts, who had occupied the Senate seat since 1962 (Senator Paul Kirk, also a Democrat from Massachusetts, temporarily held the seat between Kennedy’s death and the election of Senator Brown). Not since 1979 has a Republican held a Senate seat in Massachusetts. Massachusetts is one of the most liberal states in the United States. Not one of the ten members it sends to the House of Representatives is a Republican.

What does this tell us? Democrats have a serious problem. Republicans smell blood in the water, which is clearly evidenced by the high profile candidates that have decided to run for Senate and those who are now considering running for Senate in 2010. The list includes:

- Former New York Governor George Pataki;
- Former Congressman and 2004 Senate candidate Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania;
- Congressman Michael Castle of Delaware;
- Former Senator Dan Coats of Indiana;
- Congressman Mark Kirk of Illinois;
- Former Wisconsin Governor, and Former HHS Secretary, Tommy Thompson;
- North Dakota Governor John Hoeven;
- Former State Senator and 2004/2008 Gubernatorial Nominee Dino Rossi of Washington;
- Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina of California;
- Hawaii Governor Linda Lingle;
- Former Colorado Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton.

These are all serious, first-tier candidates. Candidates that the Republican Party could not have recruited two years ago.

Readers, I guarantee you that at least 4 of these Republicans will be serving in the United States Senate at this time next year. Along with several other lower profile Republicans.

Après Ted Kennedy, La Deluge…

In 2010, the Democratic Party must defend 18 seats. I posit that only 5 of those seats are safe (New York, Connecticut, Vermont, Maryland and California). A sixth, Senator Ron Wyden's seat in Oregon, is also safe at the moment. But only because no serious challenger has emerged. If I were former Senator Gordon Smith, the Republican who lost his race for a third term in 2008, I would be looking at the race very closely (provided that I wanted to get back to Washington). The other 12…

New York (Special Election): Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, appointed by the unpopular Governor David Patterson to replace Hillary Clinton, has a battle on two fronts. A potential one from within her own party, as former Congressman Harold Ford, Jr. of Tennessee is taking a close look at challenging her in the Democratic Primary, and a potential one from the former Republican Governor, George Pataki. Right now, too close to call.

Pennsylvania: Senator Arlen Specter switched parties because he knew he could not get reelected in Pennsylvania as a Republican. Now he probably cannot get reelected as a Democrat.

Delaware: Senator Ed Kaufman replaced Vice President Joe Biden as a placeholder so that Biden’s son, State Attorney General Beau Biden, could keep the seat in the family. Although the only way that will happen now is if the junior Biden divorces his wife and marries into the family of Republican Congressman Michael Castle, who at this point is a lock to win the seat in November.

Indiana: Until this week, two-term Senator Evan Bayh seemed headed for a third term. Now that former Republican Senator Dan Coats, who Bayh replaced in 1999 when Coats retired, has decided to jump into the race, this race is a toss up.

Illinois: While the Illinois Senate seat formerly held by President Barack Obama should have been a slam dunk for Democrats to retain, it is no longer so. The Democratic Primary damaged the ultimate nominee, State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, and moderate Republican Congressman Mark Kirk is mounting an aggressive, well-funded challenge. Another toss up.

North Dakota: The name of North Dakota’s Republican Governor is John Hoeven. The name of North Dakota’s next United States Senator is John Hoeven.

Colorado: The only thing that freshman Senator Michael Bennet has going for him at the moment is a crowded Republican primary field. Although the reason there is a crowded Republican field is that all the Republicans running think they can beat him. One of the Republicans is probably correct.

Wisconsin: Uber-liberal Senator Russell Feingold could face former Wisconsin Governor and former Department of Health and Human Services Secretary, Republican Tommy Thompson. While currently I give the edge to the incumbent Feingold, Wisconsinites have always had an independent streak in them.

Washington: Former State Senator, Republican Dino Ross, who narrowly lost two races for Governor in 2004 and 2008, has unfinished political business in the state. In 2004, he lost by 130 votes. In 2008, he lost because of the popularity of Barack Obama. If he decides to run, there is no clear favorite between him and Senator Patty Murray.

Nevada: Senate Majority Leader, Democrat Harry Reid, is already trailing all of his potential Republican opponents by double digits. Vegas is not taking bets. The curse of the Majority Leader continues.

Arkansas: See Nevada, but substitute Senator Blanche Lincoln for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

Hawaii: Often considered the most liberal state in the United States, Hawaii could very well have a competitive Senate race in 2010. Popular term-limited Republican Governor Linda Lingle is considering a run against veteran Senator Daniel Inouye. Also a toss up.

To sum up, 6 of the races are toss-ups. 5 are virtually Republican locks. To make things interesting, call it 8 Republican wins, which leave the GOP within one seat of evening the score in the Senate.

Although as Election 2010 nears, if the Republicans maintain this resurgence of popularity, look for other races to tighten up. And if the Republicans do find themselves with 50 Senate seats after Election Day 2010, how hard do you think it might be for Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky to entice Senator Joseph Lieberman to scoot across the aisle?

And people think politics is boring! Politics is just a real life soap opera!

Final question. Can the Democrats pick up any seats from Republicans? O

One year ago, I would have answered yes. I would have answered that the Democrats had a chance to pick up 7 seats; those in Missouri (Republican retirement), Kentucky (Republican retirement), Louisiana (Republican sex/brothel/prostitute scandal), Florida (Republican retirement), Ohio (Republican retirement), North Carolina (recent trends) and New Hampshire (Republican retirement). Note that the 5 retiring Republican Senators saw the same polls and the same trends that I saw, which at least in part led them to the decision to retire. Whoops. Today, I would say that all 7 seats are leaning Republican.

But the Democrats still have ten months until Election Day. In politics, anything can happen. Well not anything. But many things. There is a strengthening Tea Party that can only serve to push the Republican Party farther to the right. There is the faint possibility of universal health care. There are inevitable Republican sex scandals. So there is hope. Yet, hope often stands elusive for Democrats, invisible inside Pandora's Box.

Amazing the difference a year makes…

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SOURCES

Politics1: www.politics1.com

US Senate: www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm

US House: clerk.house.gov/art_history/house_history/partyDiv.html