And the Winner Is...

And the Winner Is…
September 18, 2008

Zach Sheinberg

To win the American Presidency, a candidate must win 270 electoral votes, just over half of the total number of 538 electoral votes in the Electoral College. Electoral votes are allocated to each state based on a simple formula. Number of United States Senators plus the number of Members of the House of Representatives in that state. Each state has 2 United States Senators. Each state has a specific number of Representatives based on population, which the decennial census determines.

For example, the State of New Jersey has 13 seats in Congress. Adding its 2 United States Senate seats gives New Jersey 15 electoral votes. The Senate has a total of 100 Senators, the House a total of 435 voting Representatives (see Note 1 below). Adding the 3 electoral votes allocated to the District of Columbia (which has zero voting members in Congress) produces a total of 538 electoral votes. A majority is 270.

Constitutional Underpinnings

The Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution (ratified on June 15, 1804) amended Article II, Section 1, in which the Framers set forth the procedures for selecting the President and Vice President.

The Twelfth Amendment states, “The person having the greatest Number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed.” Therefore, to win the Presidency, a candidate must with the majority of electoral votes.

The number of electoral votes in the Electoral College has varied over time based on the number of Members of the U. S. House of Representatives. Article I, Section 2 of the Constitution provides that the “Number of Representatives shall not exceed one for every thirty Thousand.”

However, as the population of the United States expanded, one Representative per 30,000 citizens would have become unmanageable (today, we would have over 10,000 Members of the House). Therefore, Congress intermittently increased the number of Members to keep pace with the population until 1911, when Congress fixed membership at 435. Subsequently, the constituency for each Representative would increase rather than the number of Representatives. Except for a brief period after Alaska and Hawaii were admitted to the Union in 1959, the number of Representatives has remained constant at 435 since 1911 (after admission, the total temporarily increased to 437 with the addition of one Representative for each state).

Practical Implications

The Electoral College makes irrelevant the overall popular vote in a Presidential Election. Because a candidate must win the electoral vote to win the Presidency, not the popular vote. And the electoral vote is determined state-by-state. Even if a candidate wins the popular vote, that candidate can still lose the electoral vote.

In the history of the American Presidency, there are 4 examples of this.

- In 1824, Andrew Jackson won the popular vote, but he lost the Presidency to John Quincy Adams.

- In 1876, Samuel Tilden won the popular vote, but he lost the Presidency to Rutherford B. Hayes.

- In 1888, President Grover Cleveland won the popular vote, but he lost his reelection to Benjamin Harrison. Four years later in 1892, Cleveland defeated Harrison to return to the White House.

- In 2000, Al Gore won the popular vote, but he lost the Presidency to George W. Bush.

In extension, the Electoral College also makes irrelevant national polls that the media trumpet at every opportunity. What matters are the state polls. Because the winner of the popular vote in each state wins that state’s electoral votes. In 48 states and the District of Columbia, the winner of the popular vote wins all of the electoral votes. In Maine and Nebraska, the allocation is different. In these two states, two electoral votes are allotted to the candidate that wins the popular vote. The remaining electoral votes (2 in Maine and 3 in Nebraska) are divided by Congressional Districts. Whichever candidate wins the popular vote in the Congressional District wins the one electoral vote allotted to that district.

How the Electoral College Works

Here’s how the Electoral College works. In most cases, each state political party nominates a slate of electors equal in number to the state’s electoral votes. For example, the State of New Jersey has 15 electoral votes. So the New Jersey Republican and Democratic parties choose 15 individuals to populate their slates of Electors.

When voters cast ballots on Election Day, they are not actually voting for a Presidential candidate even though the names of Senator John McCain (R-Az.) and Senator Barack Obama (D-Il.) appear on the ballot. Voters vote for the slate of electors selected by each state party. Whichever candidate wins the popular vote in a state earns the right to have the slate of Electors chosen by his political party travel to the state capital and cast their votes for President and Vice President. You and I vote for the people who vote for President.

Presumably, the Electors will vote for the candidate of the party that selected them as Electors. But keep in mind that Electors may vote for whomever they wish.

And sometimes one does. In 2000, one Elector from the District of Columbia, part of the Democratic slate of Electors, abstained in protest over DC’s lack of voting representation in Congress. So Al Gore only won 266 electoral votes instead of 267. In 2004, one Elector from Minnesota, part of the Democratic slate of Electors, voted for Senator John Edwards (D-N.C.) rather than John Kerry. Although it is very likely that each elector would have voted for the Democratic nominee if that vote was needed to win the Presidency.

Once the Electors cast their ballots, the ballots are sent to the President of the Senate (who is the Vice President of the United States), who unseals and then counts the ballots in the presence of the Senate and House. This process is set forth in the United States Constitution.

Some Interesting Facts

The 2000 Presidential Election was close. 271 electoral votes for Governor George W. Bush (R-Tx.) and 266 for Vice President Al Gore (D-Tn.). But the race in 1876 was even closer.

Samuel Tilden, the Democratic nominee, won the popular vote and 184 electoral votes. But he lost the election to Republican Rutherford B. Hayes, who won 185 electoral votes. Had Tilden won 890 more votes in South Carolina, he would have won the popular vote in the Palmetto State, its 7 electoral votes and the White House.

The biggest blowouts were 1792, when President George Washington won 132 of 134 electoral votes, and 1936, when President Franklin Roosevelt won 523 electoral votes. Governor Alf Landon (R-Ks.) won 8 electoral votes; 5 in Maine and 3 in New Hampshire.

No candidate has ever won 100% of the electoral votes.

The Majority Rule

As I mentioned, a candidate must win a majority of the electoral votes to win the Presidency. A plurality is insufficient. The Twelfth Amendment provides guidance in a case where no candidate wins such majority.

“If no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice.”

Only twice in the history of the United States has one candidate not won a majority of the electoral votes. This occurred in 1800 and 1824, which Presidential Elections were decided by the House of Representatives.

The Election of 1800 predated the Twelfth Amendment, so Article II, Section 1 of the Constitution still governed the Presidential selection process. Pursuant to the Constitution, each Elector cast two ballots. The idea was to cast one ballot for President and one ballot for Vice President. But the Constitution did not differentiate between electoral votes cast for President and Vice President. The Election of 1800 displayed clearly why that system was impractical.

Thomas Jefferson, the Democratic-Republican Presidential candidate, and Aaron Burr, the Democratic-Republican Vice Presidential candidate, each received 71 electoral votes. The Democratic-Republican Party planned for one of its Electors to abstain from voting for Burr, leaving Jefferson with 71 electoral votes and Burr with 70. But the plan did not pan out. Since both had a majority (of a total of 138 electors), only their two names were sent to the House for a vote. At the time, the House of Representatives was controlled by the opposing party, the Federalists. After a week of deadlock, the state delegations in the House voted for Jefferson (with a push from Federalist Alexander Hamilton, who hated Jefferson just a little less than he hated Burr). Hamilton’s actions in part may have led to his duel with Aaron Burr in 1804, where Burr killed Hamilton.

In the Election of 1824, Andrew Jackson, a Democratic-Republican, won the popular vote and a plurality of the electoral vote. However, the candidacies of two other Presidential-hopefuls, Henry Clay of Kentucky, a Democratic-Republican and Speaker of the House, and William Crawford of Georgia, also a Democratic-Republican and then the Treasury Secretary, stopped Jackson short of a majority. In the House of Representatives, John Quincy Adams of Massachusetts, also a Democratic-Republican, prevailed.

Modern Trend in the Electoral College

In the era of modern elections, only two candidates compete for electoral votes. Elections where a multi-candidate field truly competed for electoral votes ended in 1836. That year, five candidates won more than 10 electoral votes (Martin Van Buren, a Democrat, William Henry Harrison, Hugh White and Daniel Webster, each Whigs, and W. P. Magnum, an Independent).

In the Election of 1856, former President Millard Fillmore, then of the Whig-American Party, won 8 electoral votes against Democrat James Buchanan (who won) and Republican James Fremont. In the Election of 1860, Democrat Stephen Douglas won 12 electoral votes, John Bell, of the Constitutional Union Party, won 39 electoral votes and Southern Democrat John Breckenridge won 72 electoral votes. Republican Abraham Lincoln won the election with 180 electoral votes.

Since then, only 6 Presidential Elections have had more than two candidates win electoral votes.

Election of 1892: James Weaver of Iowa, nominee of the Populist Party, won 22 electoral votes. Democrat Grover Cleveland won the election with 277 votes; Republican Benjamin Harrison took 145.

Election of 1912: Former President Theodore Roosevelt decided to challenge his Vice President turned President, William Howard Taft, for the Republican nomination. When Roosevelt lost, he formed the Progressive Party, nicknamed the Bull Moose Party, and ran for President. Taft and Roosevelt split the Republican vote and handed the White House to New Jersey Governor, and Democrat, Woodrow Wilson. Wilson won 435 electoral votes, Roosevelt 88 and Taft 8. Although Woodrow Wilson only exceeded 50% of the popular vote in 11 states. Interestingly enough, those states were 11 of the 13 Southern States, now reliable Republican territory.

Election of 1924: Progressive Party nominee Robert La Follette, Senator from Wisconsin, won the 7 electoral votes in his home state. Republican Calvin Coolidge won 382 electoral votes to defeat Democrat of West Virginia John Davis, who won 136.

Election of 1948: On the Dixiecrat ticket, South Carolina Governor Strom Thurmond ran for President and won 39 electoral votes. President Harry Truman won 303 and Republican challenger Thomas Dewey won 189.

Election of 1968: Running on a platform against ending desegregation, George Wallace, then the former Governor of Alabama, ran for President on the American Independent Party ticket. Wallace won 46 electoral votes. Former Vice President Richard Nixon won 301 electoral votes, enough to defeat Wallace and Democrat Hubert Humphrey, Senator from Minnesota, who won 191.

Election of 1972: Libertarian John Hospers won 1 electoral vote in the 1972 Presidential Election. Not enough to overcome the 520 electoral votes won by incumbent President Richard Nixon. Although Hospers fell only 16 electoral votes short of the Democratic nominee, and Senator from South Dakota, George McGovern, who won a paltry 17 electoral votes.

Election of 2008

According to the most recent polls, Senator Obama leads in each state that either Senator John Kerry (D-Ma.) won in 2004 or former Vice President Al Gore (D-Tn.) won in 2000. Those states combine for a total of 264 electoral votes, just 6 shy of the magic number 270. Due to the 2000 Census, the states that Gore won lost a total of 7 electoral votes. So in 2008, Gore plus New Hampshire (which has 4 electoral votes) only equals 264.

If the Presidential Election were held today, Senator Obama would win 273 electoral votes. Senator Obama would be the 44th President of the United States. The 273 electoral votes would include all the states won by Al Gore plus New Hampshire (which John Kerry won in 2004) and Colorado.

In New Hampshire, Obama currently leads. By about 2%. The state is a toss-up. In Colorado, Obama leads by about 3%. Also a toss-up.

If McCain takes New Hampshire and Obama takes Colorado… McCain 269, Obama 269.

How likely is this scenario? Hard to say. But the scenario is well within the realm of possibilities. And this is politics, so anything can happen.

If each candidate wins 269 electoral votes, or more precisely, if no candidate wins 270 electoral votes (a majority), then the House of Representatives will choose the next President.

Again, quoting from the Twelfth Amendment, “If no person have such majority… the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice.”

What this means is that the House of Representatives delegation from each state will meet and vote for President. The Presidential candidate for whom the majority of the members of the House delegation votes wins the vote of that state.

For example, the State of New Jersey has 13 members in its House delegation. 7 Democrats and 6 Republicans. If each member votes along party lines, the State of New Jersey will vote for Senator Obama to be the next President of the United States.

The candidate that wins the votes of 26 of the state delegations, a simple majority, wins the White House.

The current make-up of the House of Representatives favors the Democratic candidate. Of the 50 state delegations, Democrats have a majority in 27 of them; Republicans control 21. Two states, Arizona (4 Democrats, 4 Republicans) and Kansas (2 Democrats, 2 Republicans), are evenly split.

Therefore, in the event that neither Senator McCain nor Senator Obama reach 270 electoral votes, whether the result of a tie or the result of a third party candidate, for example Libertarian Bob Barr (L-Ga.) or Independent Ralph Nader (I-Ct.), winning one or more electoral votes (so unlikely that I will confidently predict that no third party candidate will win any electoral votes in 2008), the U. S. House of Representatives will elect Senator Barack Obama the next President of the United States.

Unless some Democratic members of the House decide instead to vote for Senator McCain. Then anything can happen. It took over a week for the House to elect Thomas Jefferson in 1800. This is politics. Predicting politics is like predicting where the ball will land on a Roulette wheel. Although in 2008, we are unlikely to see anything on the level of a duel between Alexander Hamilton and Aaron Burr.

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Notes

Note 1: Each of American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico and the U. S. Virgin Islands have one Delegate in the United States House of Representatives, but none of them can vote. The District of Columbia elects one Representative to the House, but she cannot vote either.

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Sources:

Infoplease: www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0781450.html
Wikipedia: www.wikipedia.com
US Constitution: www.usconstitution.net
US House of Representatives: www.house.gov
Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections: www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS
Real Clear Politics: www.realclearpolitics.com
National Archives: www.archives.gov