The Presidential Center of Gravity

The Presidential Center of Gravity
September 25, 2008

Zach Sheinberg

Senator John McCain (R-Az.), the 2008 Republican nominee for President, cannot win the White House.

Now some of you are thinking, of course John McCain cannot win the election after eight years of Republican rule under President George W. Bush. America will never elect him President. And the rest of you are thinking, of course he can (and will) win the Presidency. He was right on the troop surge in Iraq, he will defend America’s borders and he will cut our taxes. America understands what it needs over the next four years and John McCain is the man who will deliver it.

Well, as much as I would like to debate the differences in policy and leadership styles of John McCain and Barack Obama, my opening statement is not premised upon the will of the electorate. My argument that John McCain cannot with the Presidency is based upon history.

The Theory

I developed my own theory on Presidential Elections called “The Presidential Center of Gravity Theory.” My theory is this. Whichever Presidential ticket has the lower geographical center of gravity wins the election. To be more precise, whichever Presidential ticket has, between the home states of the Presidential nominee and Vice Presidential nominee, the lower average latitude, wins the White House.

This sounds crazy. But not since 1928 has a ticket with a higher center of gravity occupied the Oval Office. I am including the evidence at the end of the article for your reference. Feel free to check yourself.

Some Qualifications

My theory is not based on precise science. I did not map out all the arcs on a globe and incorporate GPS to find the exact midpoint. There is room for error. Although in most of the Elections since 1932, the midpoints between the two Presidential tickets have not been that close. One can also choose to measure from different points within each state (eg. I chose to measure from Southern California, as that was where each of Earl Warren, Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan were from), which may also vary the results.

But what struck me was the idea that tickets with a Southern weight seem to have an advantage in Presidential Elections.

Analysis

If this theory holds any weight, then some connection must exist between the lower center of gravity and the way the electorate votes. There are several possible explanations.

The South Votes for the South

First, southern states vote for southern candidates. The evidence does link the center of gravity with historical southern voting patterns, but this connection is likely coincidental and not causal. Especially in light of the fact that Vice Presidential nominees rarely affect electoral outcomes (or so conventional wisdom holds).

Here is the evidence. Since 1932, only one Presidential candidate has won the White House without winning at least 4 of the 8 southern border states (from east to west, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and California). That lone victor was Bill Clinton in 1992. He won 3 (Louisiana, New Mexico and California). However, in 1992, remember the Perot factor. Ross Perot is one of only four non-major party candidates to break 10% in the popular vote since Reconstruction. He won almost 19% of the popular vote in 1992. The others were former President, and Bull Moose Party Nominee, Theodore Roosevelt in 1912 (27.4%), Progressive Party Nominee Robert LaFollette in 1924 (16.6%) and American Independent Party Nominee George Wallace in 1968 (13.5%).

Another piece of evidence is that since 1932, no candidate has won the White House without carrying the electoral votes of less than five of the thirteen states of the Old South (Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas). And all winners won at least half except for Dwight Eisenhower in 1952 and Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. They won 5.

The evidence makes clear that electoral votes in the South are pivotal. But it does not make clear whether the relationship between the center of gravity and southern voting patters are causal or merely casual.

Personality of the Presidential Candidate

A second explanation is that the center of gravity reflects the personality and values of the Presidential candidate. For a lower center of gravity, the Presidential candidate is either already geographically southern or selects a running mate who makes his ticket more geographically southern. And not just in the Southern sense of southern. Just southern in geographical sense (as Arizona has just as much claim on “southern” as Mississippi).

Maybe voters are reacting to these non-Northern values in voting for a Presidential ticket. One primary reason that Senator John Kennedy selected Senator Lyndon Johnson (D-Tx.) to be his running mate in 1960 was precisely because the New England Catholic Kennedy needed help appealing to voters in the South.

Since Franklin Roosevelt won his fourth term in 1944, no President except Kennedy has come from a state that sits north of the latitude that runs through the middle of the United States. Maybe there exists a Presidential bias against the North.

And if one does exist, the Republicans have taken advantage of it. Since the time of Roosevelt, the GOP has only nominated one Presidential candidate from above the middle latitude. Gerald Ford, the incumbent President, in 1976. And he lost.

This is clear evidence that electoral votes in the South are important, but does one ticket beat another in the South because its center of gravity is closer to the South? Especially in light of the fact that generally, Vice Presidential candidates do not affect election outcomes?

Just a Coincidence

A third, and the most likely explanation, is that the theory is simply a coincidence. The geographic midpoint does not matter. It is just an interesting tidbit that I discovered because I have too much free time on my hands.

Maybe geography is just one, or none, of a host of determinative factors.

In 1932, America found itself in economic dire straits and decided to switch parties to Franklin Roosevelt. Then America decided to stick with Roosevelt and Truman through the end of World War II. And who could vote against a war hero in Dwight Eisenhower? He was the Supreme Allied Commander. Try coming up with a more intimidating title than Supreme Allied Commander. But then the country just did not trust the shifty Richard Nixon and elected a young, idealist in John Kennedy in 1960. And then Barry Goldwater scared America with his belligerent rhetoric and by implying that he might saw off the eastern seaboard, so we stayed with the incumbent Johnson. And then the country was sick of Vietnam and decided to change parties by electing Richard Nixon to bring the troops home. And then we wanted change again after Watergate and picked Jimmy Carter over the guy who pardoned Nixon. But Carter depressed rather than inspired us and proved ineffective at protecting us, so America voted for the upbeat actor strong on defense. And how could America vote for a clown riding around in a tank who released murderers and rapists from prison and could not clean up his hometown harbor? So we picked George H. W. Bush. But we thought he ruined the economy, so we went with the other guy in 1992 and stayed with him amidst a sex scandal in 1996 because the other guy was just too old and out of touch. In 2000, well, I cannot explain that one. And then 2004. If the guy could not defend himself and his own record, how could he defend his country?

Certainly, each election is not so simple. Each election is a race unto itself, which is determined by literally myriad factors that can truly only be understood by those who experienced the election up close and in person.

Election of 2008

According to “The Presidential Center of Gravity Theory,” Senator John McCain could have selected almost anyone and kept the lower center of gravity. But he chose the most northern running mate he could find in Alaska Governor Sarah Palin (R-Ak.). Where is the center of gravity? Not in the United States.

Therefore, according to my theory, John McCain cannot with the White House. Senator Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States.

Who Wins and Who Loses?

As I alluded to last week in the article, “And the Winner Is…” analyzing any Presidential Election cannot be done correctly on a macro, nationwide level. Because one candidate does not win every vote. And most elections are close.

Only three times in the history of U. S. Presidential Elections has one candidate broken 60% of the popular vote. Lyndon Johnson in 1964 (61.05%), Franklin Roosevelt in 1936 (60.8%), Richard Nixon in 1972 (60.67%) and Warren Harding in 1920 (60.32%). Only Roosevelt’s career did not end in some crushing defeat during the ensuing 4 years.

In 1976, sure, plenty of Americans were frustrated that President Ford pardoned Richard Nixon and punished Ford for doing so at the polls. So pundits then and historians now charge the pardon, at least in part, with the Ford loss. But if Ford won 12,000 more votes in Ohio (about 0.3%) and 15,000 more votes in Mississippi (about 1.9%), Jimmy Carter would have remained Governor of Georgia and would have never occupied the White House. And if Ford did win reelection 1976, the debate about the wisdom of his pardon would have been put to rest.

Presidential Elections are close. Voters are the margins decide the outcome. And what drives them to vote for one candidate or another, only they truly know. So the talking heads can talk and the typing hands can type, but our theories and analyses are mere speculation. Sure, we can cite overwhelming evidence to back up our statements (and some people do not even bother to do that), but in the end, we are simply reading the same polls, the same news and the same data as everyone else. The only thing we really know is that we do not know why one candidate won and the other lost. Even if we think we do.

Did Gore lose because he did not use Clinton enough? Did Kerry lose because Americans did not trust him to defend the United States? Will John McCain lose because people do not want a third Bush term? Or will Barack Obama lose because he is too out of touch with American values?

Only that middle voter knows the answer. That one voter that takes the candidate from 50% of the popular vote in a state to 50.00000000001%. Find that voter and you’ll find the answer. Well, at least that one answer.

The Evidence

ELECTION OF 1932
Republican Presidential Candidate: Herbert Hoover (Iowa)
Republican Vice Presidential Candidate: Charles Curtis (Kansas)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere on the northern border of Kansas

Democratic Presidential Candidate: Franklin Roosevelt (New York)
Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate: John Garner (Texas)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in western Tennessee

Winner: Roosevelt-Garner

ELECTION OF 1936
Republican Presidential Candidate: Alf Landon (Kansas)
Republican Vice Presidential Candidate: Frank Knox (Illinois)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in northeastern Kansas

Democratic Presidential Candidate: Franklin Roosevelt (New York)
Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate: John Garner (Texas)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in western Tennessee

Winner: Roosevelt-Garner

ELECTION OF 1940
Republican Presidential Candidate: Wendell Willkie (New York)
Republican Vice Presidential Candidate: Charles McNary (Oregon)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in southern South Dakota

Democratic Presidential Candidate: Franklin Roosevelt (New York)
Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate: Henry Wallace (Iowa)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in northern Indiana/Ohio

Winner: Roosevelt-Wallace

ELECTION OF 1944
Republican Presidential Candidate: Thomas Dewey (New York)
Republican Vice Presidential Candidate: John Bricker (Ohio)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in southwestern Pennsylvania

Democratic Presidential Candidate: Franklin Roosevelt (New York)
Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate: Harry Truman (Missouri)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in northern Kentucky

Winner: Roosevelt-Truman

ELECTION OF 1948
Republican Presidential Candidate: Thomas Dewey (New York)
Republican Vice Presidential Candidate: Earl Warren (California)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in northeastern Kansas

Democratic Presidential Candidate: Harry Truman (Missouri)
Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate: Alben Barkley (Kentucky)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in southern Illinois/western Kentucky

Winner: Truman-Barkley

ELECTION OF 1952
Republican Presidential Candidate: Dwight Eisenhower (Kansas)
Republican Vice Presidential Candidate: Richard Nixon (California)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in northern New Mexico

Democratic Presidential Candidate: Adlai Stevenson (Illinois)
Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate: John Sparkman (Alabama)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in western Kentucky

Winner: Eisenhower-Nixon

ELECTION OF 1956
Republican Presidential Candidate: Dwight Eisenhower (Kansas)
Republican Vice Presidential Candidate: Richard Nixon (California)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in northern New Mexico

Democratic Presidential Candidate: Adlai Stevenson (Illinois)
Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate: Estes Kefauver (Tennessee)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in western Indiana

Winner: Eisenhower-Nixon

ELECTION OF 1960
Republican Presidential Candidate: Richard Nixon (California)
Republican Vice Presidential Candidate: Henry Cabot-Lodge (Massachusetts)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in northeastern Kansas

Democratic Presidential Candidate: John Kennedy (Massachusetts)
Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate: Lyndon Johnson (Texas)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in northern Tennessee

Winner: Kennedy-Johnson

ELECTION OF 1964
Republican Presidential Candidate: Barry Goldwater (Arizona)
Republican Vice Presidential Candidate: William Miller (New York)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in eastern Kansas

Democratic Presidential Candidate: Lyndon Johnson (Texas)
Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate: Hubert Humphrey (Minnesota)
Center of Gravity: A little farther south in eastern Kansas

Winner: Johnson-Humphrey

ELECTION OF 1968
Republican Presidential Candidate: Richard Nixon (California)
Republican Vice Presidential Candidate: Spiro Agnew (Maryland)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in southern Kansas

Democratic Presidential Candidate: Hubert Humphrey (Minnesota)
Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate: Ed Muskie (Maine)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in Canada

Winner: Nixon-Agnew

ELECTION OF 1972
Republican Presidential Candidate: Richard Nixon (California)
Republican Vice Presidential Candidate: Spiro Agnew (Maryland)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in southern Kansas

Democratic Presidential Candidate: George McGovern (South Dakota)
Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate: Sargent Shriver (Maryland)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in southern Wisconsin

Winner: Nixon-Agnew

ELECTION OF 1976
Republican Presidential Candidate: Gerald Ford (Michigan)
Republican Vice Presidential Candidate: Bob Dole (Kansas)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in northern Missouri/southern Iowa

Democratic Presidential Candidate: Jimmy Carter (Georgia)
Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate: Ernest Mondale (Minnesota)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in central Illinois (just south of the GOP ticket)

Winner: Carter-Mondale

ELECTION OF 1980
Republican Presidential Candidate: Ronald Reagan (California)
Republican Vice Presidential Candidate: George H. W. Bush (Texas)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in western Texas

Democratic Presidential Candidate: Jimmy Carter (Georgia)
Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate: Ernest Mondale (Minnesota)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in central Illinois

Winner: Reagan-Bush

ELECTION OF 1984
Republican Presidential Candidate: Ronald Reagan (California)
Republican Vice Presidential Candidate: George H. W. Bush (Texas)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in western Texas

Democratic Presidential Candidate: Ernest Mondale (Minnesota)
Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate: Geraldine Ferraro (New York)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in Lake Michigan

Winner: Reagan-Bush

ELECTION OF 1988
Republican Presidential Candidate: George H. W. Bush (Texas)
Republican Vice Presidential Candidate: Dan Quayle (Indiana)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in central Arkansas

Democratic Presidential Candidate: Michael Dukakis (Massachusetts)
Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate: Lloyd Bentsen (Texas)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in western Tennessee

Winner: Bush-Quayle

ELECTION OF 1988
Republican Presidential Candidate: George H. W. Bush (Texas)
Republican Vice Presidential Candidate: Dan Quayle (Indiana)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in central Arkansas

Democratic Presidential Candidate: Bill Clinton (Arkansas)
Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate: Al Gore (Tennessee)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in southern Tennessee (just south of the GOP ticket)

Winner: Clinton-Gore

ELECTION OF 1996
Republican Presidential Candidate: Bob Dole (Kansas)
Republican Vice Presidential Candidate: Jack Kemp (New York)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in eastern Illinois

Democratic Presidential Candidate: Bill Clinton (Arkansas)
Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate: Al Gore (Tennessee)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in southern Tennessee (just south of the GOP ticket)

Winner: Clinton-Gore

ELECTION OF 2000
Republican Presidential Candidate: George W. Bush (Texas)
Republican Vice Presidential Candidate: Richard Cheney (Wyoming)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in on the New Mexico/Oklahoma/Texas border

Democratic Presidential Candidate: Al Gore (Tennessee)
Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate: Joseph Lieberman (Connecticut)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in West Virginia

Winner: Bush-Cheney

ELECTION OF 2004
Republican Presidential Candidate: George W. Bush (Texas)
Republican Vice Presidential Candidate: Richard Cheney (Wyoming)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in on the New Mexico/Oklahoma/Texas border

Democratic Presidential Candidate: John Kerry (Massachusetts)
Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate: John Edwards (North Carolina)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in northern Virginia

Winner: Bush-Cheney

ELECTION OF 2008
Republican Presidential Candidate: John McCain (Arizona)
Republican Vice Presidential Candidate: Sarah Palin (Alaska)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere not in the continental United States

Democratic Presidential Candidate: Barack Obama (Illinois)
Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate: Joseph Biden (Delaware)
Center of Gravity: Somewhere in the continental United States

Winner: ?

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Sources

Wikipedia: www.wikipedia.com
Dave Leip’s Atlas of U. S. Presidential Elections: www.uselectionatlas.org