Four More Weeks

Four More Weeks
Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Zach Sheinberg


We are exactly four weeks from Election Day 2008, which is Tuesday, November 4. The general election season is in full swing. The conventions are over. We are on the last leg of the elective marathon that began for many almost two years ago. And for others including Senator John McCain (R-Az.), even longer than two years ago.

Running for office is no easy feat. It is physically, mentally and emotionally grueling. For a candidate, each race is like a personal Superbowl. The entire elective process builds to one climax, Election Day, and a binary outcome. Victory or defeat. After the voters decide, none of the yard signs, TV commercials, endorsements, fundraising milestones or catchy slogans matter.

To the winner goes the spoils; to the loser goes absolutely nothing save constant reflection on mistakes the campaign made. In many ways, American elections are akin to two men competing for the affection of the same woman. And only one ultimately wins her.


Emotional Impact

There are two kinds of losing candidates. One who cannot win and another who can win. The emotional strain of losing an election is directly proportional to the chance a candidate has of winning that election. The emotional strain for a candidate with no chance of winning (eg. Libertarian Presidential nominee, and former Congressman, Bob Barr (R-Ga.)) is minimal. He knows his chances. The emotional strain for a candidate with a reasonable chance of winning (eg. Democrat Mark Begich, Democratic nominee for Senate in Alaska) is larger.

But even the candidate who cannot win, and intuitively knows he cannot win, still thinks he can win. Because like the guy at the poker table chasing one card in the deck to the river, there is always that small chance of winning.

Take Senator Joe Biden (D-De.), the Democratic nominee for Vice President. In 1972, at the tender age of 29, he ran against incumbent Senator J. Caleb Boggs (R-De.), who had the strong backing of the Republican Party and President Richard Nixon. Biden stood no chance of winning. But in a stunning upset, he beat Boggs by about 3,000 votes.

Even the sure losers feel the emotional loss. But as a candidate’s strength increases, so does the intensity of the emotional impact of the loss.

Take Democratic National Committee Chairman, and former Vermont Governor, Howard Dean (D-Vt.). At the outset of his campaign in 2001, only the most avid political junkie even knew the name Howard Dean. But the Vermont Governor gained traction and became the frontrunner for the Democratic Presidential nomination. At some point before the Iowa Caucuses, in which Dean placed third behind Senator John Kerry (D-Ma.) and Senator John Edwards (D-N.C.), Dean believed he would be the next President of the United States. Then his campaign collapsed. Quite a fall. From thinking he would be President to, “Arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.”

Or take former Senator George Allen (R-Va.). In 2005 and most of 2006, Allen was arguably the frontrunner for the 2008 Republican Presidential nomination. Never heard of George Allen? Well, that might be because he lost his 2006 race for reelection to the United States Senate to challenger Jim Webb (D-Va.). Can you imagine the emotional impact of falling from the Republican frontrunner to unemployed (in the short span of a few months)?

The emotional roller coaster is real for all candidates, from sure losers to sure winners (unless no one challenges them). While sure winners like Senator Orrin Hatch (R-Ut.) do not lose sleep when running against sacrificial lambs like 2006 Democratic nominee Pete Ashdown (http://peteashdown.org/election-2006.html), I assure you that sure winners breath a sign of relief when Election Day is over and CNN airs the opponent’s concession speech. Ashdown won 31% of the vote. He never had a chance. Unless Hatch suddenly dropped dead before the election. Or the press uncovered an extramarital affair or something worse. As my friend Peter Hort, who was the 2004 Republican nominee for Congress in New York’s Eighth Congressional District, told me, you put yourself in a position to get lucky. And for that, hope always exists.


Example: Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick

My favorite example of the raw emotions evoked by elections is a picture that Rusty Hills, former Michigan GOP Chair and former professor of mine, showed our class. The photograph pictured former Detroit Mayor, Democrat Kwame Kilpatrick, immediately after Kilpatrick won his 2005 reelection race. The Mayor was slumped in a chair, grinning ear-to-ear and physically drained. The photograph personified the emotional trial of running for elective office. The human reaction to triumphing in an emotionally tough adventure. Imagine his demeanor if he lost.

According to polls leading up to Election Day 2005, Kilpatrick trailed his opponent, fellow Democrat Freman Hendrix, by double digits. The deficit was the result of various scandals and questionable behavior. Kilpatrick improperly spent taxpayer dollars on a car for his wife and hotel rooms and meals for himself. He also stood watching as one of his bodyguards beat up a reporter. Mayor Kilpatrick lost the Democratic Primary by 10 points. But in the Election Day runoff, Kilpatrick rebounded to win a second term with approximately 53% of the vote.


The Feeling of Loss

Think of what an election might tell a losing candidate. Voters did not like his message. Or his policies. Or even the candidate as a person. In a Presidential Election, that could mean 60 million people. 60 million people telling a candidate that he is not good enough, not smart enough, not trustworthy enough and/or not capable of effectively handling the office.

Of course, the voters may not think all of these things. They may not think any of these things. But when a constituency picks the other guy, what else can the losing candidate think?

I remember running once for Class President in High School. I lost. And I thought, how stupid are all of the people in my class. How could they not vote for me? I mean, it’s ME!

Most candidates cannot avoid the feeling. Especially since the decision to run for office is partly predicated upon the confidence of a candidate in himself. And given the amount of time, money and energy candidates spend running for office, the feeling is understandable. Run for office and see for yourself.

Jon Lovitz, playing 1988 Democratic Presidential Nominee, and Massachusetts Governor, Michael Dukakis (D-Ma.), in the 1988 SNL Presidential Debate skit articulates the sentiment in his response to Dana Carvey playing George H. W. Bush. (http://vids.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=vids.individual&videoid=23764935).

In the end, the winner-take-all system of voting means that there is only one Prom King. One officeholder. The other guy goes home to find a job. Unless he already has one. Senator John Kerry (D-Ma.) returned to the Senate. Vice President Al Gore went to teach at the Journalism School at Columbia University, became active in the fight against global warming among other pursuits. Senator Bob Dole retired.

So in 2008, who are the David Cooks and who the David Archuletas?


Election Update

Within the last two months, much has changed. The Vice Presidential nominees were selected. The Conventions occurred. The subprime mortgage debacle sent some banks into bankruptcy, others into the hands of new owners. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson pushed a recovery plan through Congress, making the federal government a new heavyweight on Wall Street. The Palin Bump is flattening. The first Presidential Debate was held. And the Vice Presidential Debate happened.

So how did these events affect the Presidential and down-ticket races? Hard to say. But it does seem clear that the nation prefers Senator Obama to manage the economy than Senator McCain. Because if Senator McCain wins the election, maybe he will suspend his Presidency during the next economic crisis (sorry, I could not help myself).

Here are the latest polls and predictions on the Presidential, Congressional and Gubernatorial races.


The White House

Two months ago, national polls (which we all know are largely worthless) forecasted a very close race. About a month ago, national polls indicated that John McCain enjoyed a slight lead. Currently, Senator Obama leads nationwide and is in firm command of the Presidential Election.

Check out the most recent swing state poll numbers (from RealClearPolitics). Obama leads in every one of them. These are the important polls because they foreshadow how the electoral votes will fall. Brackets contain the name of the poll followed by the date of the poll.

Colorado (InAdv/PollPosition, 10/7/08): Obama 51, McCain 45 (OBAMA +6)

Florida (Mason-Dixon, 10/7/08): Obama 48, McCain 46 (OBAMA +2)

Iowa (Research 2000, 10/1/08): Obama 55, McCain 39 (OBAMA +16)

Michigan (PPP (D), 10/2/08): Obama 51, McCain 41 (OBAMA +12)

Missouri (FOX News/Rasmussen, 10/6/08): Obama 50, McCain 47 (OBAMA +3)

Nevada (InAdv/PollPosition, 10/7/08): Obama 49, McCain 47 (OBAMA +2)
Nevada (Reno Gazette-Journal, 10/7/08): Obama 50, McCain 43 (OBAMA +7)

New Hampshire (CNN/Time, 10/7/08): Obama 53, McCain 45 (OBAMA +8)

New Mexico (Albuquerque Journal, 10/7/08): Obama 45, McCain 40 (OBAMA +5)

Ohio (PPP (D), 10/7/08): Obama 49, McCain 43 (OBAMA +6)
Ohio (CNN/Time, 10/7/08): Obama 50, McCain 47 (OBAMA +3)

Virginia (SurveyUSA, 10/7/08): Obama 53, McCain 43 (OBAMA +10)
Virginia (Suffolk, 10/7/08): Obama 51, McCain 39 (OBAMA +10)

Wisconsin (SurveyUSA, 10/7/07): Obama 52, McCain 42 (OBAMA +10)
Wisconsin (CNN/Time, 10/7/08): Obama 51, McCain 46 (OBAMA +5)

Some states once thought to be safe for the Republicans are now becoming competitive for Senator Obama.

Georgia (InAdv/PollPosition, 10/2/08): McCain 50, Obama 44 (MCCAIN +6)

Indiana (CNN/Time, 10/7/08): McCain 51, Obama 46 (MCCAIN +5)
Indiana (Research 2000, 10/7/08): McCain 46, Obama 46 (TIED)

North Carolina (CNN/Time, 10/7/08): McCain 49, Obama 49 (TIED)

West Virginia (Rasmussen, 9/24/08): McCain 50, Obama 42 (MCCAIN +8)
West Virginia (CNN/TIME, 9/23/08): McCain 50, Obama 46 (MCCAIN +4)

Four weeks before Election Day, Senator Obama wins the election with 364 electoral votes.


Congress (Senate and House)

On the coattails of the emergent Barack Obama, the Senate races are heavily favoring Democrats. As I mentioned in my August 14, 2008 article, “The Magic Number 60,” only Senate Democrat Mary Landrieu (D-La.) was in jeopardy of defeat. The most recent poll shows Landrieu leading her Republican opponent, State Treasurer John Kennedy (R-La.), by 13%.

Not a single Democratic Senate seat will be lost in 2008.

As for Republican seats, I will now predict that the Democrats will pick up 8.5 of them. Although I am confident that 8.5 will round up to 9 or higher come Election Day.

Certain Democratic Pick-Ups (4)

Colorado (Open): Former Congressman Bob Schaffer (R) v. Congressman Mark Udall (D)

New Mexico (Open): Congressman Steve Pearce (R) v. Congressman Tom Udall (D)

Virginia (Open): Former Governor Jim Gilmore (R) v. former Governor Mark Warner (D)

New Hampshire: Senator John Sununu Jr. (R) v. former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D)

Likely Democratic Pick-Ups (3)

Alaska: Senator Ted Stevens (R) v. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D)

North Carolina: Senator Elizabeth Dole v. State Senator Kay Hagan (D)

Oregon: Senator Gordon Smith (R) v. State House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D)

Toss Ups (4)

Mississippi (Special Election): Senator Roger Wicker (R) v. former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D)

Minnesota: Senator Norm Coleman (R) v. Al Franken (D) v. former Senator Dean Barkley (I)*

Kentucky: Senator Mitch McConnell (R) v. Bruce Lunsford (D)

Georgia: Senator Saxby Chambliss (R) v. former State Representative Jim Martin (D)

If the trend toward Democrats continues in the next four weeks, even more states, such as Maine, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas could become competitive.

Generally, as the Senate goes, so goes the House. In my August 28, 2008 article, “Breaking Down the House,” I predicted that the Democrats would pick up 21 seats. Given recent polling trends and the overall political environment, I now believe that the number will be closer to 30.


Governor

In 2008, there are 11 gubernatorial contests.

8 are safe for 6 incumbents and 2 candidates of the incumbent party in open seat contests. Democratic Governors Brian Schweitzer of Montana, John Lynch of New Hampshire and Joe Manchin III of West Virginia will win reelection. Republican Governors John Hoeven of North Dakota, John Huntsman Jr. of Utah and Jim Douglas of Vermont will also return to their respective State Capitols.

Missouri Attorney General Jay Nixon (D-Mo.) and Delaware State Treasurer Jack Markell (D-De.) will be the next Governors of their respective states.

3 races are toss-ups.

Indiana: Incumbent Governor Mitch Daniels (R-In.), former Budget Director under President George W. Bush, is battling former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson (D-In.) for a second term. Recent polls indicate the race is very close.

North Carolina: Governor Michael Easley (D-N.C.) is term limited. Charlotte Mayor, Republican Pat McCrory (R-N.C.), and Lieutenant Governor Bev Perdue (D-N.C.) are running to succeed Easley. Recent polls give McCrory a narrow lead.

Washington: Incumbent Governor Christine Gregoire (D-Wa.) is facing a rematch against former State Senator, and 2004 Republican Gubernatorial nominee, Dino Rossi. Recent polls evidence a tight race.

In a year favoring Democrats, each of Thompson in Indiana, Perdue in North Carolina and Gregoire in Washington has some additional wind in their sails. Which is not to say that each will win; however, in close races, every vote helps.


Conclusion

In the past two months, the tides have risen dramatically for Democratic candidates at all levels. Senator Barack Obama is leading and extending his leads in each of the battleground states. Senate Democrats are within striking distance of a filibuster-proof majority (i.e. 60 votes for cloture). And the House Democratic Caucus is certain to expand; the only question is by how much.

So that leaves the question, then what?

Will Democratic control of the White House and Congress lead to the change that Senator Obama regularly speaks of? Will the Democrats pull troops out of Iraq? Send more to Afghanistan? Find Osama bin Laden? Address nuclear weapons in Iran, North Korea, Pakistan and Russia? Establish universal health care? Lower taxes on the middle class? Make college tuition tax deductible? Fix the financial crisis and credit markets? Work to make America energy independent? Tackle global warming? Institute a program of national service? Stop making air travelers remove their shoes at airports (neither the United Kingdom nor Israel make passengers do this)? Secure the northern and southern borders (and pacify Lou Dobbs)?

We have to wait and see. Although historically, candidates seem to make more promises than they deliver results. Because delivering change is hard. Like moving a brick wall. But ultimately, through the effort of former President Ronald Reagan and others, even the Berlin Wall fell. But after Reagan left office.

Change is difficult, but possible. And it takes a long time. But change must start sometime. Maybe that day is Election Day 2008.

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Notes

* Former Governor Jesse Ventura (I-Mn.) appointed Dean Barkley, of the same Independence Party of Minnesota, to fill the Senate seat vacated by Senator Paul Wellstone (D-Mn.), who died in a plane crash before Election Day 2002. Former Vice President Walter Mondale (D-Mn.) replaced Wellstone on the ballot and lost to former St. Paul Mayor, and now United States Senator, Norm Coleman on Election Day. Barkley vacated the Senate seat just a few short months after taking office when the 108th Congress was sworn in.
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Sources

NYTimes.com: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/13/opinion/13clemens.html
CNN.com: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/senate/full.list/
RealClearPolitics: http://www.realclearpolitics.com
Politics1: http://www.politics1.com