44

44
Tuesday, November 17, 2008

Zach Sheinberg

The 44th President of the United States will be Barack Hussein Obama, United States Senator from Illinois.

Two weeks ago today, the 2008 Election Cycle ended. Finally!

One hundred forty-three years and forty-five days after the abolition of slavery (see Note 1 below), and fifty-four years, eight months and three days after court-ordered desegregation (see Note 2 below), America elected its first African American President. Certainly an historic event.

Although it is hard to truly appreciate the implications of such event for those who are not African American. This became clear to me when I heard Colin Powell tell an interviewer that he cried when the news networks announced that Obama had won. Personally, I was truly overwhelmed when CNN announced Obama’s victory. I literally had shivers down my spine. Partly because of my Bush malaise. Partly because of the hope that Obama allows. And partly because if an African American can win the Presidency, why not a Jewish kid from northern New Jersey?

But tears came from Colin Powell. A man who served as the first African American Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and United States Secretary of State. Congressman John Lewis (D-Ga.), a prominent civil rights activist in the 1960s and chairman of the Student Non-Violent Coordinating Committee (SNCC), had a similar reaction. President-Elect Barack Obama is monumental for the African American community. Now, not only is it possible for an African American to become the most powerful person in the world, but also it has happened.

The 2008 Presidential Election did more than tear down a race barrier. In the November 17th issue of Newsweek, contributing editor Ellis Cose, in speaking about his five-year-old daughter, wrote, “Hers would be the first generation to grow up believing it perfectly natural for a white woman or a black man to be president.” When I read that, it immediately struck me how major societal change happens. With a chance shock to the system that shifts, whether immediately or over time, society’s definition of “normal.”

America has experienced a chance shock to its natural order. But the chance shock is not the election of an African American to the Presidency. The chance shock was the viability of the Presidential candidacies of Senator Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) and Senator Barack Obama (D-Il.).

And without question, the shock happened by chance.

If Hillary Clinton was not a former First Lady who won a seat in the United States Senate, a woman would not have come so close to winning the Presidency in 2008.

If several Republicans had not lined up to primary incumbent Senator Peter Fitzgerald (R-Il.) in 2004, Fitzgerald would have sought reelection. Obama would have had to defeat a Senate incumbent. If former Senator Carolyn Moseley-Braun (D-Il.) had not passed on a 2004 rematch against Fitzgerald, Obama likely would not have run for the Democratic nomination. If Jack Ryan, the Republican nominee, had not withdrawn from the 2004 Senate race in the wake of a sex scandal, Obama may not have won the election. In any of which cases, an African American would not have won the Presidency in 2008.

Chance allowed for the shock of a woman and an African American being truly credible candidates for President. In 2008, America answered the questions, “Does America think that a woman is strong enough to be President?” and “Does racism prevent an African American from becoming President?”

Individually, we may have answered these questions long ago. But as a society, we field-tested our individual answers in 2008.

A woman can be President. And not just Hillary Clinton. And an African American will be President.

Thank you, America.

Election Recap

White House

Senator Obama won the Presidential Election with 365 electoral votes. Senator McCain won 162 (and I anticipate that he will ultimately win 173 when Missouri finishes counting). Obama won approximately 52.7% of the popular vote while McCain won 46.0%.

In my predictions, I called two states incorrectly: Indiana (which voted for Obama by about 27,000 votes) and North Dakota (which voted for McCain by about 27,000 votes).

Senate

The Democrats did not lose one seat in the Senate and picked up six (so far). The Democrats won the open seat races in Virginia (win by Mark Warner), Colorado (win by Mark Udall) and New Mexico (win by cousin Tom Udall), each of which is currently held by a Republican. The Republicans won the open seat races in Nebraska (win by Mike Johanns) and Idaho (win by Jim Risch), also held by Republicans.

The Democrats added three more seats by ousting incumbents in New Hampshire (win by Jeanne Shaheen), North Carolina (win by Kay Hagan) and Oregon (win by Jeff Merkley).

Three races remain undecided.

Alaska: Alaska is still counting. The most recently tally puts challenger Mark Begich (D-Ak.) up by about 1,000 votes over incumbent Ted Stevens (R-Ak.). Begich should win. But if he doesn’t, I am not sure which is worse. Begich losing to a convicted felon. Or John Ashcroft’s 2000 loss to Mel Carnahan, who died before Election Day.

Minnesota: Minnesota is conducting a statutory recount. The latest numbers put the incumbent, Norm Colemen (R-Mn.), ahead of Al Franken (D-Mn.) by about 200 votes. This race is too close to call.

Georgia: Georgia will hold a runoff on December 2 because Georgia law requires a candidate to win a majority of the vote. Incumbent Senator Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) fell short of that mark. Chambliss has the edge over challenger Jim Martin (D-Ga.) in round two.

House

The Democrats netted 19 House seats with 5 left undecided.

California 4: State Senator Tom McClintock (R-Ca.) leads Charlie Brown by about 600 votes.

Ohio 15: Steve Stivers (R-Oh.) leads Mary Jo Kilroy (D-Oh.) by about 150 votes.

Virginia 5: Not so good for Incumbent Virgil Goode (R-Va.), who trails Tom Perriello (D-Va.) by about 800 votes.

Louisiana 2: December 6 runoff. Incumbent Bill Jefferson (D-La.) is favored, despite an ongoing investigation of him by the FBI.

Louisiana 4: December 6 runoff to replace retiring Jim McCrery (R-La.) between John Fleming (R-La.) and Paul Carmouche (D-La.). Fleming is favored in this Republican district.

Surprises: Despite a federal probe of Alaska’s lone Congressman, Don Young (R-Ak.), he won reelection to his House seat. The Diaz-Balart brothers, Lincoln and Mario (R-Fl.), both won reelection in South Florida. Freshman Nancy Boyda (D-Ks.) lost her first bid for reelection in her Republican-leaning district. Michelle Bachmann (R-Mn.) won a second term despite calling Obama anti-American. Paul Kanjorski (D-Pa.) won another term, although polls indicated he was headed for retirement. And Thelma Drake (R-Va.) lost her bid for a third term, though not once did I see her name appear on any list of vulnerable Republicans.

Looking Ahead

After losing the White House and losing more ground in the House and Senate, what will the Republican Party do? Will it return to the fiscal conservatism that characterized the party that former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) led into power in 1994? Will it refocus on the social conservatism that Sarah Palin championed in the 2008 Presidential Election? Will it devolve into turmoil amidst infighting between the moderate and conservative factions? Will it go the way of the Whig Party?

People asked the same thing about the Democratic Party after the 2004 elections. It still exists. Although I suspect the reason for its survival has more to do with George W. Bush than it has to do with a conscious overhaul of the Democratic Party and Democratic principles.

So yes, the Republican Party will survive. But in what form is unclear.

The Republican Governors Association met for its annual meetings last week in Miami. The media was rife with speculation about the future of the Republican Party. The unpopularity of the Bush Administration and the age of 2008 Republican standard-bearer John McCain inevitably will leave a leadership gap at the top of the Party.

Who will lead a new Republican Party? Stars of 2008 like Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee? Members of the old guard like Newt Gingrich? Rising stars like Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, Hawaii Governor Linda Lingle, Florida Governor Charlie Crist, and Congressman Eric Cantor (R-Va.)? Do the Republicans have a Barack Obama lying somewhere in wait? Well, probably not an African American one.

And how about the Democrats? The Age of Clinton, like the Age of Bush, is over. The Age of Obama has begun. But who will rise to the forefront of the Democrat Party now that the Democrats have returned to the White House?

I offer the following Democrats to watch.

Senator-Elect Mark Warner (D-Va.): Newly-elected Senator Mark Warner, who previously served as Governor of Virginia, has a knack for raising money and working across the aisle. Warner will spend his time in the Senate wisely in an attempt to set himself up for another run for the White House in 2016.

Senator Evan Bayh (D-In.): On the short-list for Democratic VP, who I believe only narrowly lost the job to Joe Biden, Bayh will solidify his status as the point-man for the moderate and conservative Democrats. Bayh will play an important role in building consensus to legislate the priorities of the incoming Obama Administration.

Governor Janet Napolitano (D-Az.): A former US Attorney and State Attorney General, Napolitano is highly qualified to become the next US Attorney General. She won two gubernatorial terms in a red state and appeals to both Democrats and Republicans.

Congressman Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.): Following in his predecessor’s (Rahm Emanuel’s) footsteps, Van Hollen led the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to expand Democratic control of the House of Representatives. Van Hollen is a foreign policy expert with extensive knowledge of the Middle East. I do not know what role Van Hollen may play in the Democratic Party, but after the 2008 elections, his stature has increased tremendously.

News of Note

2008 Governors’ Races: Each race unfolded as expected. No surprises here.

Rahm Emanuel: President-Elect Obama named Emanuel (R-Il.) as his White House Chief of Staff. Check out Obama’s 2005 roast of his new chief aide at http://abcnews.go.com/video/playerIndex?id=6208813.

Hillary Clinton: Obama met with his former rival for the Democratic nomination and purportedly offered her the position of Secretary of State. Why? Probably to follow the example of Abraham Lincoln, who brought his adversaries and rivals into his administration. And to effectively utilize Hillary and Bill in restoring the standing of the United States in the rest of the world. The combination of Secretary Clinton and former President Clinton overseeing American foreign policy will be formidable and likely very effective. Why would Hillary accept? Because she knows she will never be President. She has a long time to wait to become Chairman of a Senate Committee as she is the 10th most senior Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, 7th on the Special Committee on Aging, 5th on Environment and Public Works and 8th on the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. And she is not in the Senate Democratic Leadership and has no easy entrée into it. Will she accept? More likely than not.

Sarah Palin: If Ted Stevens ultimately wins reelection, the Senate will likely expel him. Which leaves open the possibility that Sarah Palin may be the next Senator from Alaska. Gulp… What? Feel free to read that again. When asked about her interest in the United States Senate, she dismissed the possibility the same way Presidential candidates dismiss the possibility of running as the Vice Presidential candidate. With a wink and nod. Will Palin be a player in the post-Bush Republican Party? She will try to become one. Although unsuccessfully, even if she ends up in the Senate.

John McCain: Now that John McCain knows that he will never occupy the Oval Office (unlike after the 2000 Election when hope still remained), McCain will become McCain once again. I expect McCain to serve the Obama Administration nobly and work diligently to legislate a new clean energy policy. McCain will play a key role on Capitol Hill in effectuating the change that President-Elect Obama spoke of so often during his campaign. And he will once again be a thorn in the side of fellow Republicans.

House Republicans: In an effort to overhaul the House Republican Leadership, Congressman Dan Lundgren (R-Ca.) has decided to challenge Republican House Leader John Boehner (R-Oh.) for the top Republican spot in the House. Lundgren will probably lose, but his point will be made clearly.

Joe Lieberman: The Democrats will vote by secret ballot on the fate of Lieberman within the Democratic Caucus. The vote will determine whether Lieberman will be stripped of his chairmanship of the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee. However, the Democrats are not considering expelling Lieberman from the Democratic Senate Caucus, as Lieberman is a very loyal Democrat with respect to his voting record and policy positions (with the exception of the Iraq War).

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Notes

Note 1: The Thirteenth Amendment to the Constitution, which abolished slavery, was ratified on December 6, 1865.

Note 2: The United States Supreme Court handed down its decision in Brown v. Board of Education, which judicially mandated desegregation, on May 17, 1954.

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Sources

US Constitution: http://www.usconstitution.net/xconst_Am13.html
Wikipedia: www.wikipedia.org
CNN: www.cnn.com/POLITICS
U. S. Senate: www.senate.gov