Special Edition: Election Day 2008

Special Edition: Election Day, 2008
Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Zach Sheinberg

Where the Marathon Started

This past Sunday, November 2, 2008, hosted the running of the thirty-ninth annual New York City Marathon. Thousands of athletes gathered at the foot of the Verrazano Narrows Bridge on the east side of Staten Island in the cool, autumn morning to compete in the 26.2 mile road race. Just over two hours after the start, Brazilian Marilson Gomes dos Santos broke the finish line tape to place first, running down the leader, Moroccan Abderrahim Goumri, during the last mile in Central Park.

The 2008 Presidential Election started similarly. On an auspicious Wednesday, the day after Election Day 2004. Incumbent President George W. Bush (R-Tx.) was term limited in 2008. His Vice President, Dick Cheney (R-Wy.), lacked Presidential ambition. Which created the first open Presidential contest (where no sitting President or Vice President was seeking the White House) since 1928 (see Note 1 below).

The press started to circulate the names of Presidential hopefuls immediately. For the Democrats, the press focused on the inevitable nomination of Senator Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.). The press seemed to forget that only death is inevitable. They mentioned other names like Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico, Governor Mark Warner of Virginia and some guy who had not yet served one day in the United States Senate. A State Senator from Illinois named Barack Obama. But they mentioned them only to create an interesting, albeit farfetched, scenario: a Democratic nominee other than Hillary Rodham Clinton.

For the Republicans, the field was wide and lacked a clear frontrunner. But those at the forefront included Senator George Allen (R-Va.), former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-N.Y.), Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (R-Ma.), New York Governor George Pataki (R-N.Y.), Senator John McCain (R-Az.) and even Florida Governor Jeb Bush (R-Fl.).

The Race Takes Shape

At different mile markers, the demanding course of the Presidential Election pared down the fields. New candidates emerged, but more often existing candidates faltered.

Some candidates couldn’t raise the money, like George Pataki. Some rationally assessed the primary field, concluded they couldn’t win and decided to back another candidate, like former Governor Tom Vilsack (D-Ia.), who endorsed Hillary Clinton, or opted to seek a different office, like Mark Warner, who is the Democratic nominee for Senate in Virginia. And yet still others decided to remain in the race to make their views known, like Representative Ron Paul (R-Tx.), hope for a miracle, like former Governor Mike Huckabee (R-Ar.), or angle for the Vice Presidential slot, like Senator Joe Biden (D-De.).

Ultimately, two candidates emerged.

Senator John McCain won the Florida Republican Primary on January 29 and became the Republican frontrunner. Once Mitt Romney suspended his campaign on February 7, the Republican nomination contest essentially ended for the benefit of McCain.

Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton fought on until June 3, when Montana and North Dakota held the last Democratic Primaries. However, Obama clinched the nomination earlier, probably after he won the Potomac Primaries in Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia on February 12. The proportional allocation of Democratic Primary delegates made Obama’s delegate lead virtually insurmountable after February 12.

The General Election

The last leg of the New York City Marathon starts once runners cross over the Madison Avenue Bridge at mile number 21 and return onto Manhattan Island from the Bronx. The path traces Fifth Avenue south to the MoMA in the fifties until it turns west into Central Park for the homestretch. Sometimes the last few miles are a real race. Other times, the leader has already sewn up first place. But we never really know for sure until that first contestant tears through the finish line tape.

It isn’t over until it’s over. In politics especially. While Obama leads in the important swing state polls and is likely to win the Presidential Election, maybe voters will have a last minute change of heart. We will find out today.

The election homestretch is the two months between the Conventions and Election Day. And then Election Day.

Remember waiting for your college acceptance letter, your bar exam results, or your medical residency match? Remember the butterflies in your stomach as you opened the envelope or logged on to the website?

And then finally you get your answer. “Congratulations, Zachary!” Or, “Dear Zachary, After careful consider of your application, we regret to inform you…”

The Concession Call

Later tonight, candidates all across the country will receive not a letter, but a phone call. In Alaska, the phone call might go something like this. Words in brackets represent unspoken thoughts, not actual words.

Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D-Ak.): Hello?

Senator Ted Stevens (R-Ak.): Ted Stevens calling.

Begich: Good evening, Senator.

Stevens: I just wanted to call and congratulate you on winning the race. [Somehow your BS seems to have resonated with ignorant voters].

Begich: Thank you [for getting indicted in a federal corruption probe].

Stevens: I wish you all the best for your term in office. [And I mean term in the singular].

Begich: Thank you [for getting convicted eight days before the election].

Stevens: If there is anything I can do to help you serve the State of Alaska during the next six years [and only six years because you will never get reelected], please do not hesitate to ask [a fellow Democrat, if you can find one in Alaska].

Begich: I appreciate that Ted. Thanks for calling [me awful names during the campaign]. Take care [of yourself in prison].

Stevens: Same to you. So long [to my political career].

Election Day

Election Day is the ultimate dramatic crescendo. The ultimate binary outcome. Imagine dedicating your life to one goal for two years and then falling short. In elective politics, there is no consolation prize. Only the emotional toll of loss.

Over the past few weeks, more than a few people have worried to me out loud about an Obama loss. How John McCain, Karl Rove and the Republicans will pull the rabbit out of the hat. How the Democrats will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Again.

This is politics, so anything can happen. And predictions are merely educated guesses based in fact. According to a survey conducted by ESPN before Week 5 of the 2008 NFL season, every state in the country, except for Tennessee, picked the New York Giants to remain undefeated the longest. The Giants lost to the 1-3 Cleveland Browns in Week 5. The Tennessee Titans are now 8-0.

I say with confidence that this election year is different. The Republicans are running with one leg tied to a tree.

Today is political Judgment Day. Two years or more, billions of dollars and hundreds of realized and crushed dreams later, the 2008 election cycle will end. The losers will go home and the winners will go to Washington to work on nearly impossible public policy issues and to start campaigning and raising money all over again.

To the victors I say congratulations and good luck. They will need it.

The Victors

My predictions for the outcomes of the 2008 elections are below. The winners are denoted in capital letters. Incumbents are denoted with an *.

The White House

Electoral College
BARACK OBAMA: 356 Electoral Votes
John McCain: 182 Electoral Votes

Popular Vote
BARACK OBAMA: 51.6%
John McCain: 47.4%

Swing States
BARACK OBAMA: Colorado, Florida, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio and Virginia
John McCain: Georgia, Indiana and Missouri.

Concession Speech by John McCain: 11:26 PM EST.

The Senate

As I predicted in August, each of the 12 Senate Democrats seeking reelection in 2008 will win. Of the 18 Republicans seeking reelection, 10 will cruise to a safe victory. That leaves 8 vulnerable Republican incumbents and 5 open seat contests.

Pre-Election Day 2008, the Senate is composed of 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans and 2 Independents. The 2 Independents, Senators Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut and Bernard Sanders of Vermont, both caucus with the Democratic Party, which explains the Democratic Majority.

Post-Election Day 2008, I predict that the Senate composition will be 58 Democrats, 40 Republicans and 2 Independents. Which will give the Democrats the necessary 60 votes for cloture. Unless Lieberman, who endorsed John McCain in the 2008 Presidential Election and spoke at the Republican National Convention, bolts for the Republican Party. Or the Democrats kick him out of the Democratic Caucus. Something to watch closely after Election Day.

I am confident that the Democrats will pick up at least 7 seats. Georgia and Minnesota are less certain. In each state, I opted for Democratic pickups because of how I believe Obama’s coattails will affect the Senate races. However, if no candidate in the Georgia Senate race achieves a majority of the popular vote, a runoff occurs. Without the fervor during the runoff that the top of the Democratic ticket will engender today, the Republican has an advantage if a runoff happens. Further, there is an outside chance that the Democrats will oust the incumbents in Mississippi (Republican Roger Wicker) and Kentucky (Republican, and Minority Leader, Mitch McConnell). But the most recent polls have eroded my confidence.

The Senate Races

Alaska: Democrats +1
Democrat: MARK BEGICH
Republican: Ted Stevens*

Colorado (Open): Democrats +1
Democrat: MARK UDALL
Republican: Bob Schaffer

Georgia: Democrats +1
Democrat: JIM MARTIN
Republican: Saxby Chambliss*

Idaho (Open):
Democrat: Larry LaRocco
Republican: JIM RISCH*

Kentucky:
Democrat: Bruce Lunsford
Republican: MITCH MCCONNELL”

Minnesota: Democrats +1
Democrat: AL FRANKEN
Republican: Norm Coleman*
Independent: Dean Barkley

Mississippi (Special):
Democrat: Ronnie Musgrove
Republican: ROGER WICKER*

Nebraska (Open):
Democrat: Scott Kleeb
Republican: MIKE JOHANNS

New Hampshire: Democrats +1
Democrat: JEANNE SHAHEEN
Republican: John Sununu*

New Mexico (Open): Democrats +1
Democrat: TOM UDALL
Republican: Steve Pearce

North Carolina: Democrats +1
Democrat: KAY HAGAN
Republican: Elizabeth Dole*

Oregon: Democrats +1
Democrat: JEFF MERKLEY
Republican: Gordon Smith*

Virginia (Open): Democrats +1
Democrat: MARK WARNER
Republican: Jim Gilmore

The House

I could list all 435 House races. But I will not. Instead, I will go state-by-state and note where the Democrats and Republicans will pick up seats.

The current make-up of the U.S. House of Representatives is 235 Democrats, 199 Republicans and 1 vacant seat (caused by the death of Representative Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-Oh.)).

I predict that the Democrats will have a net gain of 34 Congressional seats on Election Day. When the 111th Congress is sworn in at the beginning of January 2009, there will be 270 Democrats and 165 Republicans.

The Houses Races

Alabama: Bobby Bright (D) will pick up the open Republican seat in AL-02. Democrats +1.

Alaska: Ethan Berkowitz (D) will defeat incumbent Don Young (R) in AK-At Large. Democrats +1.

Arizona: Ann Kirkpatrick (D) will pick up the open AZ-01 seat. Democrats +1.

Arkansas: No change.

California: In CA-04, Charlie Brown (D) will win the seat in his second attempt. Democrats +1.

Connecticut: Incumbent Chris Shays (R) will lose this time to give Connecticut a full Democratic Congressional slate. Democrats +1.

Colorado: Incumbent Marilyn Musgrave (R) will lose to Betsy Markey (D) in CO-04. Democrats +1.

Delaware: No change.

District of Columbia: No change.

Florida: In FL-08, Alan Grayson (D) will upset incumbent Ric Keller (R). In FL-16, Tom Rooney (R) will oust freshman Tim Mahoney (D). In FL-21, incumbent Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) will lose, as will his brother, Mario Diaz-Balart (R), in FL-25. Democrat Suzanne Kosmas (D) also will defeat incumbent Tom Feeney (R) in FL-24. Democrats +3.

Georgia: No change.

Hawaii: No change.

Idaho: Freshman Bill Sali (R) will lose in ID-01. Democrats +1.

Illinois: Republicans will lose two seats in Illinois, IL-10 and IL-11. Dan Seals (D) will defeat incumbent Mark Kirk (R) and Debbie Halvorson (D) will win the IL-11 open seat race. Democrats +2.

Indiana: Twenty-six year old Mike Montagano (D) will defeat incumbent Mark Souder (R). Democrats +1.

Iowa: No change.

Louisiana: No change.

Kansas: No change.

Kentucky: No change.

Maine: No change.

Maryland: Frank Kratovil (D) will take the MD-01 open seat over conservative Andrew Harris (R). Democrats +1.

Massachusetts: No change.

Michigan: Mark Schauer (D) will defeat freshman Tim Walberg (R) in MI-07. Gary Peters (D) will oust incumbent Joe Knollenberg (R) in MI-09. Democrats +2.

Minnesota: Ashwin Madia (D) will score an upset and take the open MN-03 seat. Democrats also will pick up the MN-06 seat held by freshman Michelle Bachmann (R). Democrats +2.

Mississippi: No change.

Missouri: Judy Baker (D) will win a close MO-09 race to replace Kenny Hulshof (R), who is running for Governor. Democrats +1.

Montana: No change.

Nebraska: No change.

Nevada: Dina Titus (D) will beat incumbent Jon Porter (R). Democrats +1.

New Hampshire: No change.

New Jersey: John Adler (D) will take the open NJ-03 seat. Democrats +1.

New York: Mike McMahon (D) will pick up the open NY-13 seat. Dan Maffei (D) will win in NY-25 on his second try. Eric Massa (D) will win his rematch with incumbent Randy Kuhl (R) in NY-29. Democrats +3.

New Mexico: Martin Heinrich (D) will win in the open NM-01 race and Harry Teague (D) will win the open NM-02 seat. These two wins will give Democrats all 3 New Mexico Congressional seats. Democrats +2.

North Carolina: Larry Kissell (D) will win his rematch against incumbent Robin Hayes (R) in NC-08. Democrats +1.

North Dakota: No change.

Ohio: Steve Driehaus (D) will beat incumbent Steve Chabot (R) in OH-01. On her second attempt, Mary Jo Kilroy (D) will take the OH-15 seat. And in OH-16, the Democrats will pick up the seat being vacated by incumbent Ralph Regula (R). Democrats +3.

Oklahoma: No change.

Pennsylvania: Kathy Dahlkemper (D) will defeat incumbent Phil English (R) in PA-03. Republicans will score a rare pickup in PA-11 by defeating incumbent Paul Kanjorski (D). No change.

Oregon: No change.

Rhode Island: No change.

South Carolina: Linda Ketner (D) ousts incumbent Henry Brown (R) in an upset in SC-01.

South Dakota: No change.

Tennessee: No change.

Texas: Tom DeLay’s (R) old TX-22 seat will go right back to the Republicans after held by Nick Lampson (D) for one term. Republicans +1.

Utah: No change.

Vermont: No change.

Virginia: In a surprise upset, VA-05’s Virgil Goode (R) will lose to Tom Perriello (D). Gerry Connolly (D) will pick up the VA-11 seat being vacated by incumbent Tom Davis (R). Democrats +2.

Washington State: Darcy Burner (D) will win her rematch against incumbent Dave Reichert (R) in WA-08. Democrats +1.

West Virginia: No change.

Wisconsin: No change.

Wyoming: In an upset, Gary Trauner (D) will pick up the open WY-At Large seat. Democrats +1.

The Governors

All but two races are virtual certainties.

Democrats Jack Markell in Delaware, Governor Brian Schweitzer in Montana, Governor John Lynch in New Hampshire, Governor Joe Manchin in West Virginia and State Attorney General Jay Nixon in Missouri will all win. The Democrats will net one Governorship with Nixon’s win to replace the retiring incumbent Governor, Republican Matt Blunt.

Republican incumbent Governors Mitch Daniels in Indiana, John Hoeven in North Dakota and Jim Douglas in Vermont will win reelection.

The two question marks are North Carolina and Washington State.

However, because of the Obama factor, I think both will fall for the Democrats. That means a first term for North Carolina Lieutenant Governor Bev Perdue (D) and reelection for Washington State Governor Christine Gregoire (D).

Conclusion

Election Day 2008 will produce an influx of new Democratic officeholders in the House and Senate and in the Executive Branch. It will produce unified Democratic control of Congress and the White House, which the Democratic Party has not enjoyed since the first two years of the Clinton Administration from 1993 - 1995.

Given the serious issues facing the next President, global terrorism, the War in Iraq, the struggling economy, the millions of Americans without healthcare, energy independence and nuclear proliferation and those issues that have yet to surface, an undivided government will provide very actionable opportunities to address these issues. Whether the Democrats will take advantage of the opportunity and if they do, whether they will make the right decisions remains to be seen.

We will get the first report card on the Democratically-controlled federal government two years from today, after the 2010 mid-term elections.

Current Events of Note

White House Chief of Staff: I read a news report that indicated that the Obama camp has made overtures to House Democratic Caucus Chair Rahm Emanuel (D-Il.) about Emanuel serving as Obama’s White House Chief of Staff. Emanuel formerly served in the Clinton Administration and as the Chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the arm of the House Democratic Caucus responsible for retaking control of the House in 2006, during the 2006 election cycle. The current Chairman is Chris Van Hollen of Maryland (D-Md.).

The Bradley Effect Redefined: Does the Bradley Effect really exist? The Bradley Effect is named for former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African American, who ran for Governor of California against George Deukmejian (R-Ca.) in 1982 (as well as in 1986) and lost (twice). Some polls leading up to the 1982 Election gave Bradley the lead, but he lost on Election Day. The Bradley Effect theorized that some voters told pollsters they would vote for Bradley, but then did not because he was African American. The existence of the effect is questionable (and the results from the 1982 California gubernatorial election make that clear). But now some suggest a different Bradley Effect, that of undecided voters telling pollsters that they are undecided when they have in fact already decided to vote for John McCain. We will know for sure when we see the election returns.

Voter Turnout: Expectations are high for a record turnout on Election Day. Many voters have exercised the opportunity to vote early or vote absentee in order to avoid lines at the polls. High turnout favors Obama because the traditionally underrepresented demographics at the polls are reliable Obama vote bases.

Get Out and Vote: If you need another reminder, here it is. If you have not done so already, GO VOTE!

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Notes:

Note 1:

1932: Incumbent President Herbert Hoover sought (and won) the Republican nomination.
1936, 1940, 1944: Incumbent President Franklin Roosevelt sought (and won) the Democratic nomination.
1948: Incumbent President Harry Truman sought (and won) the Democratic nomination.
1952: Incumbent Vice President Alben Barkley sought (and lost) the Democratic nomination.
1956: Incumbent President Dwight Eisenhower sought (and won) the Republican nomination.
1960: Incumbent Vice President Richard Nixon sought (and won) the Republican nomination.
1964: Incumbent President Lyndon Johnson sought (and won) the Democratic nomination.
1968: Incumbent Vice President Hubert Humphrey sought (and won) the Democratic nomination.
1972: Incumbent President Richard Nixon sought (and won) the Republican nomination.
1976: Incumbent President Gerald Ford sought (and won) the Republican nomination.
1980: Incumbent President Jimmy Carter sought (and won) the Democratic nomination.
1984: Incumbent President Ronald Reagan sought (and won) the Republican nomination.
1988: Incumbent Vice President George H. W. Bush sought (and won) the Republican nomination.
1992: Incumbent President George H. W. Bush sought (and won) the Republican nomination.
1996: Incumbent President Bill Clinton sought (and won) the Democratic nomination.
2000: Incumbent Vice President Al Gore sought (and won) the Democratic nomination.
2004: Incumbent President George W. Bush sought (and won) the Republican nomination.

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Sources:

New York City Marathon: http://www.nycmarathon.org/results/index.php.
Real Clear Politics: www.realclearpolitics.com
Politics1: www.politics1.com
Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections: www.uselectionatlas.org
Democratic Senate Campaign Committee: www.dscc.org
Wikipedia: www.wikipedia.com