Breaking Down the House

Breaking Down the House
Thursday, August 28, 2008

Zach Sheinberg

Twelve years after former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) and his Contract with America sent Congressional Democrats into political exile in 1994, the Democratic Party regained control of both Houses of Congress in 2006. In the House of Representatives, the Democrats picked up 31 seats for a total of 233. The Republicans lost 30 seats, its headcount shrinking to 202.

Of the 30 seats that Democrats took from the Republicans (see Note 1 below), 23 were taken from Republican incumbents. The remaining 7 were open seat contests in districts whose retiring incumbents were Republicans.

Certainly, some of the 30 seats that changed hands were, and continue to be, politically middle-of-the-road districts. Districts that are perennially targeted by both parties each election cycle. But some are reliable GOP seats caught up in a wave of anti-Republican sentiment. Some Republican voters were so turned off by any or all of the War in Iraq and Abu Ghraib, unconstitutional wiretapping, the handling of Hurricanes Rita and Katrina, the outing of CIA operative Valerie Plame, Jack Abramoff or other scandal that they could not bring themselves to vote for a Republican incumbent. Not because of any ideological shift. But because of the distaste associated with sending a Republican back to Congress, which at least tacitly would have signaled approval of the performance of the Bush Administration.

Maybe you have experienced this sensation. Maybe in college when you got terribly sick from too many tequila shots. So sick that you could not even bear the smell of tequila for weeks afterwards. But as the weeks became months and the months became years, did you take another shot of tequila? Of course you did.

So how many of the 30 Democratic pick-ups are solid Republican districts ripe for switching back into the GOP fold? Where are traditionally Republican voters going to return to their ideological roots and oust their freshman Democratic Congressman?

Where the House Stands

Let me first provide a current overview of the House. Since the 110th Congress was sworn in on January 3, 2007, with 233 Democrats and 202 Republicans, 12 new members joined the chamber, the result of death, resignation or appointment to the Senate. Of those 12, the Democrats picked up three Republican seats. In March 2008, Bill Foster (D-Il.) won the seat vacated by former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Il.). And in May 2008, Don Cazayoux (D-La.) picked up retiring Congressman Richard Baker’s (R-La.) seat and Travis Childers (D-Ms.) won former Congressman Roger Wicker’s (R-Ms.) seat. Upon the resignation of former Senator Trent Lott (R-Ms.), Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour (R-Ms.) appointed Wicker to fill the Senate post. This news does not bode well for Republicans. Democrats took the seat of the former Speaker of the House and two Republican seats in the South.

The current makeup of the House stands at 235 Democrats, 199 Republicans and 1 vacancy (see Note 2 below).

Open Seat Contests

Like in the Senate, open seat Congressional races are prizes for both parties. Without an incumbent running, no candidate has any advantage in name recognition. Unless you are running for your father’s seat (candidate Duncan D. Hunter (R-Ca.) is the Republican nominee in the 52nd District, the seat that his father, Duncan L. Hunter (R-Ca.), is vacating) or grandmother’s seat (Andre Carson (D-In.) won a special election to fill the seat in the 7th District that his grandmother, Julia Carson (D-In.), vacated when she passed away).

And no candidate has any fundraising advantage based on incumbency, Congressional committee assignments or history sending pork home from Washington.

According to OpenSecrets (www.opensecrets.org), which compiles fundraising data for candidates, based on the most recent fundraising reports (2nd Quarter 2008) released by the Federal Election Commission, only 14 incumbents (of 398 incumbents seeking reelection) have raised less money than their challenger. Only 3.5%! Hence the term “incumbency advantage.”

In open seat races, the voters (sometimes) get a real choice between two new candidates. Although sometimes the real choice occurs in a primary, not in the general election. The way that many districts are gerrymandered (see Note 3 below), based on historical voting patters and demographic composition, makes the districts very safe for either the Democrats or Republicans. In these districts, whomever wins the primary of the favored party is a lock to with the general election. Examples are the 3rd District in Mississippi for the Republicans (in 2006, no Democrat even challenged Representative Chip Pickering (R-Ms.) who is retiring) and the 5th District in Alabama for the Democrats (in 2006, Representative Bud Cramer (D-Al.), who is retiring, ran unopposed).

In the 2008 election cycle, there are 37 open House races. 26 members of Congress are retiring, 23 of them Republicans. Why so many Republicans? Two reasons. First, the Republican Party lost control of the House in 2006. Which means no committee gavels, no agenda-setting ability and less money to send home to their districts. Second, popular sentiment is still against the Republicans because of the unpopularity of President Bush.

So some Republicans have preferred to retire than to wage a costly, bitter and exhausting campaign to win reelection against a Democratic challenger emboldened and energized by the Democratic uprising. Two examples are the 2nd and 7th Districts in New Jersey, where incumbents Jim Saxton (R-N.J.) and Mike Ferguson (R-N.J.), respectively, opted to retire rather than run against well-funded, aggressive Democratic challengers in State Senator John Adler (D-N.J.) and State Assemblywoman, and 2006 challenger, Linda Stender (D-N.J.), respectively.

Of the remaining 12 open contests:

- 3 members lost their primaries (Chris Cannon (R-Ut.); David Davis (R-Tn.); and Wayne Gilchrest (R-Md.)) (see Note 4 below).

- 4 Congressmen are running for Senate (Mark Udall (D-Co.); Tom Allen (D-Me.); Tom Udall (D-N.M.); and Steve Pearce (R-N.M.)).

- 1 Congressman is running for Governor (Kenny Hulshof (R-Mo.)).

- 2 Congressman lost primaries for election to the U. S. Senate (Rob Andrews (D-N.J.); Heather Wilson (R-N.M.)).

- And 1 Member of Congress passed away (Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-Oh.)).

In the open seat contests this year, Democrats are out-fundraising Republicans. According to the data reported by OpenSecrets, there are 11 districts currently held by the GOP, whose incumbents are not seeking reelection, where Democratic candidates have raised more money than the Republican candidates (see Note 5 below). There is only 1 Democrat-held district (the 5th District in Oregon), where the Republican has raised more.

2008 Races to Watch

By my calculation, there are approximately sixty-six (66) Congressional seats up for grabs in 2008. Forty-seven (47) are currently occupied by Republicans, nineteen (19) by Democrats. Sixteen (16) are open seat races, fifteen (15) of which are currently held by Republicans. Eighteen (18) are held by freshmen Congressmen, fifteen (15) of which are Democrats. So to answer my earlier question, there are fifteen (15) freshmen Democrats in jeopardy of a one-term career in the House.

For the sake of completeness, and based upon district demographics, historical voting patterns and fundraising, the districts that I believe will be competitive are below. The letter in parentheses represents the party of the incumbent.

Alabama: 3rd (R) District
Alaska: At-Large (R) District
Arizona: 1st (R), 3rd (R) and 8th (D) Districts
California: 3rd (R), 4th (R), 11th (D), 26th (R), 46th (R) and 50th (R) Districts
Colorado: 4th (R) District
Connecticut: 4th (R) and 5th (D) Districts
Florida: 8th (R), 10th (R), 13th (R), 16th (D), 21st (R), 24th (R) and 25th (R) Districts
Georgia: 8th (D) and 13th (D) Districts
Idaho: 1st (R) District
Illinois: 10th (R), 11th (R), 13th (R) and 14th (D) Districts
Indiana: 3rd (R) and 4th (R) Districts
Kansas: 2nd (D) and 3rd (D) Districts
Kentucky: 3rd (D) District
Louisiana: 4th (R) and 6th (D) Districts
Michigan: 7th (R) and 9th (R) Districts
Minnesota: 3rd (R) District
Mississippi: 1st (D) District
Missouri: 6th (R) District
New Hampshire: 1st (D) District
New Jersey: 5th (R) District
New Mexico: 1st (R) and 2nd (R) Districts
New York: 13th (R), 20th (D), 25th (R) and 26th (R) Districts
Ohio: 1st (R), 2nd (R), 15th (R) and 16th (R) Districts
Oregon: 5th (D) District
Pennsylvania: 4th (D) and 10th (D) Districts
South Carolina: 1st (R) District
Texas: 7th (R), 10th (R) and 22nd (D) Districts
Virginia: 5th (R), 10th (R) and 11th (R) Districts
Washington: 8th (R) District
Wisconsin: 8th (D) District
Wyoming: At-Large (R) District

The Freshmen 15

The 15 vulnerable Democratic freshmen are:

- Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-8): Rep. Giffords (D-Az.) beat conservative Randy Graf (R-Az.) to succeed retiring Rep. Jim Kolbe (R-Az.), a moderate Republican, in 2006. Currently, Giffords has an approximate lead of $1.5MM. I expert Giffords to hold this seat.

- Jerry McNerney (CA-11): Rep. McNerney (D-Ca.) beat former veteran Rep. Richard Pombo (R-Ca.) in 2006 in this traditionally Republican district with 53% of the vote. While his 2008 opponent has raised almost $1MM, McNerney is over $2MM. I expect McNerney to hold this seat.

- Chris Murphy (CT-5): Rep. Murphy (D-Ct.) defeated former Rep. Nancy Johnson (R-Ct.) to win the seat in 2006. Just like Giffords and McNerney, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has made this race a priority and as a result, Murphy has raised over $2MM while is opponent is still around $1MM. I expect Murphy to hold this seat.

- Tim Mahoney (FL-16): Upon his election in 2006, Rep. Mahoney (D-Fl.) was the most vulnerable Democrat in Congress. He won the seat formerly held by Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fl.), who resigned amidst allegations of sexual impropriety with a House page. Because Foley resigned about a month before the election and the Republicans scrambled to find a replacement candidate, Mahoney essentially got a free ride. But still only won with 49% of the vote. The 16th District is a Republican district and despite Mahoney’s huge fundraising advantage (of about $1.5MM), this district will be competitive.

- Bill Foster (IL-11): Rep. Foster (D-Il.) won 52.5% of the vote in a special election to replace former House Speaker Dennis Hastert against wealthy Republican, Jim Oberweis (R-Il.). The two are locked in a rematch for the 2008 general election. The race in this Republican-leaning district must be rated a toss-up.

- Nancy Boyda (KS-2): In 2006, Rep. Boyda (D-Ks.) ousted former Rep. Jim Ryun (R-Ks.), also a former Olympian, to take the seat in this Republican district. Ryun even ran to create a rematch in 2008, but lost the primary to Republican Lynn Jenkins (R-Ks.). While Boyda has outraised Jenkins, she must in order to win reelection. Another rematch and another toss-up.

- John Yarmuth (KY-3): Rep. Yarmuth (D-Ky.) defeated former Rep. Anne Northup (R-Ky.) in 2006 with 51% of the vote total. Northup is running in 2008 to reclaim her old seat. Both candidates have raised over $1MM. Another rematch and another toss-up.

- Don Cazayoux (LA-6): Like Rep. Foster in Illinois, Rep. Cazayoux (D-La.) won a special election to succeed the retiring incumbent, Rep. Richard Baker (R-La.). Cazayoux won 49% of the vote to defeat Republican Woody Jenkins (R-La.), who is running again in the 2008 general election. Although with his almost $2MM raised, Cazayoux should hold this seat.

- Travis Childers (MS-1): Like Reps. Foster and Cazayoux, Rep. Childers (D-Ms.) won a special election to follow a middle-of-term resignation, in this case, former Rep. Roger Wicker (R-Ms.), now interim Senator Roger Wicker. Childers’ Republican opponent, Greg Davis (R-Ms.), who Childers beat in the special election, has thus far slightly outraised the incumbent. In this traditionally Republican district, this race is most certainly a toss-up.

- Carol Shea-Porter (NH-1): Rep. Shea-Porter (D-N.H.) won her seat by defeating incumbent Rep. Jeb Bradley (R-N.H.) in 2006 by 2% points. Bradley is back for a rematch. While their fundraising is about even, I expect Shea-Porter to hang on to her seat. Although if Senator John McCain (R-Az.) has any coattails in the Granite State, look for them to decide a close race in favor of former Rep. Bradley.

- Kirsten Gillibrand (NY-20): Rep. Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) ousted former Rep. John Sweeney (R-N.Y.) in the 2006 elections with 53% of the vote in a district that leans Republican. Her 2008 opponent, Sandy Treadwell (R-N.Y.), has raised almost $2.7MM. While Gillibrand has raised almost $4MM, this race will be competitive. The Republicans are targeting this race.

- Jason Altmire (PA-4): Rep. Altmire (D-Pa.) defeated former Rep. Melissa Hart (R-Pa.) in 2006 with 52% of the vote. Although Hart is back for a rematch in 2008, her fundraising has been unimpressive compared to that of Altmire. Look for the freshman to be back for a sophomore term.

- Chris Carney (PA-10): Rep. Carney (D-Pa.) sent former Rep. Don Sherwood (R-Pa.) into retirement in 2006 with 53% of the vote. However, in 2008, his opponent, Christopher Hackett, has raised $2MM to Carney’s $1.6MM. This race is a toss-up.

- Nick Lampson (TX-22): After Rep. Mahoney, Rep. Lampson (D-Tx.) was the second most vulnerable Democrat after the 2006 elections. Rep. Lampson formerly served in the House of Representatives, and then lost to Rep. Ted Poe (R-Tx.) in 2004 after the re-re-districting of the Texas Congressional District map perpetrated by former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Tx.). Former Rep. Lampson then specifically moved into Rep. DeLay’s district to challenge him in the 2006 race. Lampson won that race only after DeLay was forced to resign amidst fundraising impropriety. While Rep. Lampson is leading his opponent in fundraising for the 2008 race, this race is a certain toss-up.

- Steve Kagen (WI-8): Rep. Kagen (D-Wi.) won election to the House in an open-seat contest in 2006 to succeed former Rep. Mark Green (R-Wi.), who won the Republican nomination for Senate that year and therefore did not seek reelection to the House. Kagen beat John Gard (R-Wi.) with 51% of the vote. Gard is back for a rematch in 2008. While Gard currently trails Kagen in dollars raised, the Republican tilt of the district will keep the race competitive.

The 3 vulnerable Republican freshmen are:

- Vernon Buchanan (FL-13): Rep. Buchanan (R-Fl.) squeaked out an extremely narrow win over Christine Jennings (D-Fl.) in 2006. Quite appropriate as the duo was running to replace former Rep. Katherine Harris (R-Fl.), of 2000 Florida Recall fame. Harris won the Republican nomination for Senate in 2006 and ultimately lost to Senator Bill Nelson (D-Fl.). Even though Buchanan leads the fundraising race with almost double what Jennings has raised, this race will be competitive.

- Bill Sali (ID-1): Rep. Sali (R-Id.) never seems to miss an opportunity to antagonize the Idaho Republican Party with misplaced comments and unpredictable behavior. In 2006, Sali won with only 50% of the vote total. In Idaho! His Democratic opponent in 2008, Walt Minnick, has raised over $1MM to Sali’s $650K. Even though this district is in Idaho, I expect this race to be competitive.

- Tim Walberg (MI-7): In the 2006 Republican primary, Conservative Rep. Walberg (R-Mi.) defeated former Rep. Joe Schwarz (R-Mi.), a moderate. Walberg went on to win the general election with 51% of the vote. In 2008, Walberg has raised just over $1MM for the race, but his opponent, Democrat Mark Schauer (D-Mi.), has raised slightly more. While this race will be competitive, look for Walberg to serve only one term like his predecessor Schwarz, who would likely have held this seat for a long time.

Predictions

After all of that, I am sure you would like a guess at the political split after the 2008 elections. At the moment, I expect the Democrats to pick up 21 House seats, or close to that number. Which will put the House division at 257 Democrats, 178 Republicans. Although as Election Day nears, those numbers likely will adjust to reflect the changing environment.

Conclusions

In summation, there are several truths in Congressional elections.

1. Incumbents, especially incumbents of the majority party (in 2008, the Democrats), have huge advantages in fundraising, name recognition and winning elections.

2. Money matters because it buys things like yard signs, campaign staff and in some House races, television and radio advertising. The amount of money raised is also often directly related to the seriousness of a candidacy.

3. The easiest races to win are those without an opponent. The second easiest races to win are those with an incumbent mired in scandal. The third easiest races to win are open seats. The fourth easiest races to win are those with a freshman running for reelection. And each is even easier to win when your party is in the majority and the minority party is unpopular.

4. ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN ON ELECTION DAY. So stay tuned!

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Note 1: Former Representative Bernard Sanders, an Independent, won election to the United States Senate in 2006. Peter Welch, a Democrat, won the Vermont at-large House that Sanders previously held, adding one more seat to the Democratic Caucus.

Note 2: Representative Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-Oh.), of the 11th District in Ohio, passed away in August 2008.

Note 3: The term “gerrymander” is named for Elbridge Gerry, former Governor of Massachusetts and Vice President of the United States under President James Madison, who first employed the practice of drawing Massachusetts legislative districts to favor his own party.

Note 4: A fourth Congressman, Al Wynn (D-Md.), also lost his February 2008 primary to challenger Donna Edwards (D-Md.). Following the loss, Wynn decided to resign. In a special election held in June 2008, Edwards won the election and is currently the incumbent in Maryland’s 4th District.

Note 5: In May 2008, during the 2nd Quarter for fundraising, Representative Vita Fossella (R-N.Y.) withdrew from his reelection race after being arrested for drunk driving and admitting to having a child out of wedlock. While before his withdrawal, Fossella was outraising his Democratic opponents, the Democrats currently have raised more money that the Republicans seeking the nomination in Fossella’s absence. If included, this District would make 12.