VP a VIP?

VP a VIP?
Thursday, August 21, 2008

Zach Sheinberg

Political wisdom maintains that the choice of a Vice Presidential nominee simply does not affect the outcome of the Presidential election. The accusation is mostly true.

Consider the evidence. Since 1952, I would argue that only two Vice Presidential candidates have had any decisive impact on the Presidential Election. Only two can be considered Election MVPs (Meaningful Vice Presidents).

The first MVP, who is always cited, is Senator Lyndon Johnson (D-Tx.). Despite the Texan's previous adamant refusal to run for Vice President on any ticket, in 1960, Senator John Kennedy asked and Johnson accepted. There is little disagreement among historians that Johnson won Kennedy the White House in the South, where polls showed Kennedy weak. Campaigning as his running mate, Johnson helped Kennedy win 6 Southern States, including Johnson's home state of Texas and part of Alabama (six of the eleven electoral college electors cast ballots for Senator Harry Byrd of Virginia).

The second MVP is Senator Joseph Lieberman (I-Ct.). Yes, Gore/Lieberman did not win the Presidency. However, evidence makes clear that more Floridians who voted intended to vote for Gore/Lieberman than for Bush/Cheney. But that pesky butterfly ballot... Lieberman turned Florida from a sure-win for the Republicans in 2000 into a contest that arguably won Vice President Gore the White House.

Aside from Johnson and Lieberman, the rest of the Vice Presidential candidates simply have been boilerplate, Constitutional necessities that arouse a media groping for news content in the 24-hour news cycle and political junkies who get aroused by debating the virtues and vices of potential VPs like college football fans debate the weekly rankings. For the rest of the voting public, running mate selection engenders as much attention as the neighbor's kid appearing in the wedding section of the Sunday New York Times.

Who Cares about VP Selection?

So if VP candidates mean very little, what explains the rampant media coverage? Why do talking heads call the Vice Presidential selection the “first important decision” that the candidate makes? Why did a CNN.com headline on Wednesday, August 20, 2008 declare, “Speculation, anticipation as Obama’s VP announcement nears”? Who exactly is speculating and anticipating?

Six groups of people.

1. Potential VP Candidates. No explanation necessary.

2. Presidential Candidates. Why? Because they want to know how the media and electorate will receive the choice. And if elected, because the President is stuck with his choice for at least the ensuing four years.

3. Campaign Senior Staffers. Why? Because they anxiously await tweaking the campaign plan to use the VP choice to handicap the Presidential nominee. And if picking a VP second, because they might factor in the choice of the opposing party in advising their party’s nominee on a running mate.

4. Interest Groups. Why? Because they have axes to grind. They are waiting to jump back on the bandwagon or desert the candidate forever. How will the religious conservatives react if Senator McCain selects pro-choice former Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge? How will Hillary Clinton supporters react if Senator Obama picks… anyone but Hillary Clinton?

5. Political Junkies. If you’re reading this, obviously you care. Why? Because, selection of Vice Presidential nominees probably is the biggest uncertainty in politics. Polls rather accurately predict elections. Primaries are usually over right after they start (the 2008 Democratic primaries the obvious exception). But until the Presidential nominee picks his number two and announces that choice, all political junkies can do is speculate.

6. The Media. Why? Because they have on-air minutes to fill and column inches to write. VP selection is the best type of story for the press. The press is expected to write about the “Veepstakes” but has zero facts. Which leaves the media free to fill time and space with speculation. David Petraeus, commanding officer of US troops in Iraq? Chet Edwards, Democratic Congressman from Texas? Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard? John Kerry, 2004 Democratic Presidential nominee? Oscar the Grouch, grumpy green Sesame Street resident who lives in a garbage can? Media speculation about potential VPs is akin to creative writing!

Does anyone else care? The simple answer is no. Voters vote for the President, not the Vice President. And people are busy with their own lives, work, kids and school.

Should anyone else care? The simple answer is yes.

Why Does VP Selection Matter?

My high school US History teacher once commented that the only thing the Vice President does is wake up in the morning, call the President and ask, “How are you feeling today, Mr. President?” And when the President answers, “Great,” the Vice President can go right back to sleep.

But in spite of the foregoing, the Vice Presidential candidates are important. Especially when the President answers, “Not so great,” or simply drops dead.

In our almost 220 years of American existence, thirty percent (30%) of Vice Presidents have become President. And most were not elected to the Presidency before assuming office.

One even, President Gerald Ford, was never even elected Vice President! After Vice President Spiro Agnew, who served under President Richard Nixon, resigned in 1973, Nixon appointed Ford, then the Republican Leader in the House of Representatives, Vice President. Then Ford succeeded Nixon when he resigned two years later amidst the Watergate scandal.

Fourteen (14) of a total of forty-six (46) Vice Presidents subsequently occupied the Oval Office, thirteen (13) of which immediately succeeded the President under which that Vice President served. Those thirteen (13) are:

Vice President John Adams: Elected President in 1896 to succeed President George Washington;

Vice President Thomas Jefferson: Defeated President John Adams for Presidency in 1800;

Vice President Martin Van Buren: Elected President in 1836 to succeed President Andrew Jackson;

Vice President John Tyler: Succeeded to Presidency after death of President William Henry Harrison (1841);

Vice President Millard Fillmore: Succeeded to Presidency after death of President Zachary Taylor (1850);

Vice President Andrew Johnson: Succeeded to Presidency after assassination of President Abraham Lincoln (1865);

Vice President Chester Arthur: Succeeded to Presidency after death of President James Garfield (1881);

Vice President Theodore Roosevelt: Succeeded to Presidency after assassination of President William McKinley (1901);

Vice President Calvin Coolidge: Succeeded to Presidency after death of President Warren Harding (1923);

Vice President Harry Truman: Succeeded to Presidency after death of President Franklin Roosevelt (1945);

Vice President Lyndon Johnson: Succeeded to Presidency after assassination of President John Kennedy (1963);

Vice President Gerald Ford: Succeeded to Presidency after resignation of President Richard Nixon (1975); and

Vice President George H. W. Bush: Elected President in 1988 to succeed President Ronald Reagan.

The fourteenth, Vice President Richard Nixon, won the White House eight years after serving as Vice President (under President Dwight Eisenhower from 1953 – 1961). After losing the 1960 Presidential Election to Senator John Kennedy, he recaptured the Republican nomination in 1968.

The lesson is that Vice Presidential candidates do matter. Unless they don’t.

Vice President Obscurity

Yet commonly, the Vice Presidential candidates are as memorable as a star athlete in the Olympics. We read her name in the paper. See her interviewed on television. And forget about her for four years.

Of the thirty-two (32) Vice Presidents of the United States who did not become President, how many can you name? Sure, Cheney and Gore are easy. But can you name President Ford’s Vice President (see answer below)?

Of the even larger number of Vice Presidential candidates who did not win the office, how many can you name? Again, Edwards and Lieberman are easy. But do you recall who former Senator Bob Dole picked as his running mate in 1996 (see answer below).

To the Vice Presidential candidates, the choice means acceleration to the top of the party. Consider some former losing Vice Presidential nominees.

The Democratic Party chose Assistant Secretary of the Navy Franklin Roosevelt as its Vice Presidential nominee in 1920.

Vice Presidents Hubert Humphrey and Walter Mondale each won the Democratic Presidential nomination immediately after the Presidents under which they served left office, in 1968 and 1984, respectively.

While former Senator Ed Muskie, who Humphrey chose as his VP in 1968, did not win the Democratic nomination for President in 1972 (Senator George McGovern did), leading up to that election, Muskie was viewed by many as the frontrunner.

In President Ford’s reelection bid in 1976, Ford chose Senator Bob Dole as his VP. Twenty years later, Dole found himself as the GOP Presidential nominee.

Even serious speculation offers a career boost. In 2000, Senator John Kerry was a finalist for the VP spot on Vice President Gore’s ticket.

The 2008 Election

Consider the names the media have circulated. The serious ones.

For the Republicans, Governors Charlie Crist of Florida, Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, Mark Sanford of South Carolina, former Governors Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and Tom Ridge of Pennsylvania, Representative Eric Cantor of Virginia and former Representative Rob Portman of Ohio.

For the Democrats, Senators Evan Bayh of Indiana, Joe Biden of Delaware, Hillary Clinton of New York, Jack Reed of Rhode Island and Jim Webb of Virginia, Governors Tim Kaine of Virginia and Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas and former Governor Mark Warner of Virginia.

Each of these lists contains names that we will see at the forefront of each political party over the next four years. Not all, but certainly some.

Basis for Selection

For the Presidential nominee, VP selection is a hiring decision. As the employer, the Presidential candidate looks for a qualified individual with whom he can work and who does not affect negatively the organization or its mission.

But for the American public, VP selection is mostly a moment of interest and four years of afterthought.

In choosing a running mate, the Presidential nominees ask themselves four (4) questions.

1. Can the person help (or at the very least not hurt) my chances of winning the Presidency?

2. Can the person help me govern the nation (to the extent that I desire help)?

3. Can the person govern the nation if I am somehow incapacitated?

4. Do I like the person?

As I mentioned above, the first question is the least important.

In 2008, I would argue that for Senator McCain, question number three is critical because of voter concern with his age (McCain’s 72nd birthday is next Friday). I think that the Republican VP candidate must be younger than McCain and have executive experience.

For Senator Obama, I would argue that question number two is critical because of voter concern with his experience. I think that the Democratic VP candidate must be a veteran politician with exemplary foreign policy and national security credentials.

But if VPs do not affect election outcomes, why should McCain select a younger executive and Obama a veteran foreign policy expert? Why not just pick Bono and Michael Phelps?

Well, because each year could be a Lyndon Johnson year.

Opinions and Predictions

After all of this, I cannot skip making predictions, especially given the looming Convention deadlines.

Who I Predict The Candidates Will Pick:
Republican VP: Former Governor Tom Ridge (R-Pa.)
Democratic VP: Senator Joseph Biden (D-De.)

Who I Would Pick:
Republican VP: Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.)
Democratic VP: Former Vice President Al Gore (D-Tn.)

Conclusion

As I said, Vice Presidents do not matter. Unless they do matter.

But who grabs an umbrella with a 30% chance of rain?

Notes
- President Ford selected New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller as his Vice President.
- Senator Dole selected New York Congressman Jack Kemp as his running mate.