The Magic Number 60

The Magic Number 60
Thursday, August 14, 2008

Zach Sheinberg

There are two magic numbers in the United States Senate: 51 and 60.

Why 51? Because 51 means a majority. In a perfect world, where Democrats and Republicans always vote the party line, 51 means only majority party-sponsored bills pass. Currently, that would be Democratically-sponsored bills. But Senators John McCain (R-Az.), Joseph Lieberman (I-Ct.) and former Senator Zell Miller (D-Ga.) have reminded us constantly that the Senate is not a perfect world. So 51 does not guarantee passage of any bill.

But 51 is important. It means control. Leaders of the majority party, today the Democrats, set the agenda. Senators Harry Reid (D-Nv.), the Senate Majority Leader, and Richard Durbin (D-Il.), the Senate Majority Whip, decide what bills make it to the Senate floor for debate and subsequent votes. Just as Committee Chairs and Subcommittee Chairs decide what bills make it in front of their committees and subcommittees. If a bill is not considered in Subcommittee or Committee first, it dies. Bills must get voted out of committee to reach the Senate floor.

Control of the agenda includes control of the budget and appropriation process. Which explains why, as of July 30, 2008 the Senate Democrats have raised $93 million versus $59 million for Republicans. The good graces of Democrats are more valuable to donors.

And most importantly for many Senators, 51% also means a victorious election or reelection.

Why 60? Because 60 votes means cloture. Cloture, according to the official United States Senate website, is “the only procedure by which the Senate can vote to place a time limit on consideration of a bill or other matter, and thereby overcome a filibuster. Under the cloture rule (Rule XXII), the Senate may limit consideration of a pending matter to thirty additional hours, but only by vote of three-fifths of the full Senate.”

Unlike the United States House of Representatives, which, through its Rules Committee, sets parameters and time limits for debates on legislation, the Senate allows unlimited debate on bills. Theoretically, the Senate affords unlimited debate as a reflection of the framers’ intention that the Senate be insulated from fickle popular will. The framers wanted Senators to take the time to thoroughly consider each measure brought before it. However, the reality may be different. Unlimited debate simply may persist because since 1806, the Senate has not enacted rules to curtail it.

Unlimited debate means that any Senator can delay a vote on any piece of legislation, and effectively grind Senate business to a halt, by filibustering. In practice, when a Senator filibusters, he or she appears on the Senate floor and does not stop talking, whether about the bill or anything else. Some have even read entries from the phone book.

Filibusters end in one of two ways. An unsuccessful filibuster ends with a vote for cloture by 60 or more Senators. This ultimately ends the debate and puts the bill to a vote. A successful filibuster ends when the sponsors of the bill agree to change its provisions or completely withdraw it. During a filibuster, no other Senate business can occur. The filibuster essentially hijacks the legislative process.

Of course, 60 Democratic Senators would not sideline completely the Republicans. Because even with 60 Democratic Senators, 60 votes for cloture is not assured. 60 Democratic Senators have 60 different personalities, agendas, motivations and constituencies. But if nothing else, 60 still opens the door to cloture and strengthens the Democratic position of power in the Senate.

Can Democrats Reach 60 in 2008?

So the question becomes, can the Democrats reach the magic number 60 during the 2008 election cycle. Answer: Yes, but unlikely. If I were a Republican Senator, I would stay up at night worried about 2010 (that is if I were not up for reelection in 2008). But that’s two years off, so let’s take a look at 2008.

Currently, the Senate is composed of 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.*

In 2008, there are 33 Senate races and 2 special elections. One special election in each of Mississippi to replace the retired Senator Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and Wyoming to replace the deceased Senator Craig Thomas (R-Wy.). Of 35 Senate seats up this year, 23 are Republican seats, 12 are Democratic. 7 of the Republican seats are open or held by an interim appointee.

Lots of Republican seats up for election + a big number of open seats + an unpopular Republican President + strong Democratic challengers = acid reflux for Republicans.

Democrats

Of the 12 Democratic Senate seats, 11 Democrats can renew their apartment leases in Washington. Senators Max Baucus (D-Mt.), Joseph Biden (D-De.), Richard Durbin (D-Il.), Tom Harkin (D-Ia.), John Kerry (D-Ma.), Carl Levin (D-Mi.), Mark Pryor (D-Ar.), Jack Reed (D-R.I.) and Jay Rockefeller (D-W.V.) will all be back for six more years. And while Senator Tim Johnson's (D-S.D.) debilitating stroke in December 2006 and octogenarian Senator Frank Lautenberg's (D-N.J.) age might be Achilles' heels in another election year, neither Johnson nor Lautenberg need agonize over reelection. Although there is an outside chance that these two races become more competitive.

The only bright spot for Senate Republicans in 2008 is recent Democrat turned Republican, Louisiana State Treasurer John Kennedy. Kennedy is challenging incumbent Senator Mary Landrieu (D-La.). Her vulnerability results from the African American population outflow from New Orleans, her less than stellar popularity ratings, Louisiana's recently become redder and an aggressive challenge from a popular statewide officeholder, formerly a Democrat. In 2002, Landrieu won her general election with 46% of the vote (or 563,400 votes). By Louisiana law, her failure to win a majority led to a runoff with Republican challenger Suzanne Terrell that December. Landrieu won the runoff with 52% of the vote, a margin over Terrell of about 40,000 votes. According to figures released by the US Census Bureau in July of 2008, the population of New Orleans stood at about 240,000. Prior to the hurricanes, the population was about 455,000. This population shift cuts into Landrieu's most reliable New Orleans voter base. While recent polls show Landrieu positioned to win reelection, the dynamics of the race leave it as a toss-up.

However, as of today, I predict that the Democrats do not lose a single Senate seat in 2008.

Republicans

Now the Republicans.

Reelection shoo-ins are Senators Lamar Alexander (R-Tn.), John Barasso (R-Wy.), Saxby Chamblis (R-Ga.), Thad Cochran (R-Ms.), John Cornyn (R-Tx.), Michael Enzi (R-Wy.), Lindsay Graham (R-S.C.), James Inhofe (R-Ok.) and Jeff Sessions (R-Al.). That leaves 14 seats.

The anti-Bush and anti-Republican climate have put seats in play that otherwise would be slam-dunks for the Republicans. But these seats aren't slam dunks in 2008.

Senator Ted Stevens (R-Ak): At the end of July, Stevens was indicted for lying about gifts from an oil company. The last candidate the Republicans want to run in 2008 is a scandal ridden incumbent receiving gifts from the companies the public views as responsible for outrageously high gas prices! If Stevens survives his primary on August 25, he likely will face Anchorage Mayor, Democrat Mark Begich. Begich currently leads Stevens by double digits in the most recent polls. If Stevens wins the primary, he soon will be enjoying more summer sunlight and winter darkness in retirement back in Alaska.

Senator Pat Roberts (R-Ks.): To the extent that Roberts is vulnerable in a state as red as Kansas, it is the result of anti-Republican sentiment and a strong challenger in former Representative Jim Slattery. But right now, Roberts wins comfortably.

Senator Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.): McConnell finds himself in a similar position as Roberts in Kansas. A bad year for Republicans and an aggressive challenger in very wealthy health care executive Bruce Lunsford. The statewide ire held for former Governor, Republican Ernie Fletcher, which led to his reelection defeat in November 2007, could affect McConnell. Additionally, Fletcher loyalists are outraged that McConnell supported, and some would say spearheaded, former Congressman Anne Northup's challenge to Fletcher in the Republican gubernatorial primary, which Fletcher ultimately won. In a close race, losing these Republicans could prove decisive. While McConnell’s current lead certainly will narrow as Election Day approaches, as of today, McConnell wins reelection.

Senator Susan Collins (R-Me.): While Collins’ poll numbers have been trending downward, she is still above the 50% mark. However, the numbers of her Democratic opponent, Representative Tom Allen, are trending upward. And in a year favoring Democrats, in a state where Obama leads McCain by double digits, running against a well-funded opponent, Collins has a tough race on her hands. This race is a toss-up.

Senator Norm Coleman (R-Mn.): Freshman Coleman is running against television personality and humorist, Democrat Al Franken. While the most recent polling favors Coleman, Franken is well-funded, has pervasive name recognition and can ride the coattails of his party’s Presidential nominee, Senator Barack Obama, who leads in the state by double digits according to some recent polls. Like the Maine Senate race, this contest will tighten as November nears. This race is also a toss-up.

Senator John Sununu Jr. (R-N.H.): Along with Alaska’s Steven’s, Sununu is the only other Republican incumbent currently trailing his Democratic opponent. Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen, who Sununu beat in 2002, is back for a rematch. Shaheen has held a solid lead since announcing her candidacy. Her statewide popularity, his statewide unpopularity and pervasive anti-Republican sentiment will spell disaster for Sununu in November.

Senator Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.): Add Dole to the list of red state Republicans running against a strong Democratic challenger in a bad year for Republicans. While she has raised more than $11 million, she has less than $2 million left in the bank. And Dole only leads State Senator Kay Hagan, her Democratic opponent, by single digits. Dole has the edge here and would win reelection if the election were held today, but November is three months away.

Senator Gordon Smith (R-Or.): Add Smith to the list of blue state Republicans running against a strong Democratic challenger in a bad year for Republicans, like Collins in Maine. Which makes him the third most vulnerable Republican behind Ted Stevens and John Sununu. While Smith leads his opponent, State House Speaker Jeff Merkley, and has a huge fundraising advantage, these are musts for a Republican running in a blue state like Oregon to remain competitive. Oregon has a two-term Democratic Governor, one Democratic United States Senator, four of five Democratic Congressmen, a State Senate with 19 Democrats out of 30 State Senators, a Democratically controlled State House, and a track record of voting for Democratic Presidential candidates since 1984 when Walter Mondale won only his home state of Minnesota. This race is a toss-up.

Open Seats

Both parties prize open seats. Why? Because generally, no candidate has the name recognition or fundraising prowess of the retiring incumbent. So neither party starts the race with a disadvantage.

However, for 2008, the Democrats have recruited better candidates in the open seat contests and will benefit from doing so at the polls in November.

Colorado: Congressman Mark Udall (D-Co.) and former Congressman Bob Schaffer (R-Co.) are running to replace Senator Wayne Allard, who has kept to this two-term limit pledge. Udall has led the whole way in polls and fundraising in a state trending blue. In 2004, Colorado elected a Democratic Senator to replace a Republican. Two years later, it elected a Democrat Governor to replace a Republican. At this point, the race is Udall’s to lose.

Idaho: This is one of the two open seats the Republicans can count on retaining. The public relations nightmare that is incumbent Republican Senator Larry Craig has not affected the candidacy of Republican Lieutenant Governor Jim Risch. Although his Democratic opponent and former Congressman Larry LaRocca is well-funded, Idaho is Idaho. It is almost impossible for Democrats to get elected statewide.

Mississippi: While incumbent Senator Thad Cochran will cruise to an easy reelection, interim Senator Roger Wicker (R-Ms.) does not have the same fortune. Wicker was appointed to replace the retired former Senator Trent Lott. Lott scooted out the door to become a lobbyist at the eleventh hour in 2007 just before a new law regulating lobbyists took effect (the law, when it took effect, prevented Senators from becoming lobbyists for a two-year period after leaving office). Polls show Wicker's race almost dead even. I give the slight edge to the Democratic candidate, and former Mississippi Governor, Ronnie Musgrove, because of the anti-Republican sentiment and the impact that an African American candidate for President will have on the Mississippi electorate. Mississippi is more than 35% African American. Still, this race is a toss-up.

Nebraska: Along with Idaho, Nebraska is the other reliable Republican win. Former Governor and former U. S. Secretary of Agriculture, Mike Johanns, is the Republican candidate. Rancher Scott Kleeb is the Democratic candidate. Because of Johanns’ statewide name recognition, fundraising advantage and Nebraska’s Republican bent, Johanns can be confident in a new career in the United States Senate.

New Mexico: To replace incumbent Senator Pete Dominici (R-N.M.), all three members of New Mexico’s Congressional delegation ran. Democratic nominee, Representative Tom Udall, first cousin of Colorado Senate candidate Mark Udall, ran unopposed for his nomination. Republican nominee, Representative Steve Pearce, fought a bitter and costly battle to narrowly defeat Representative Heather Wilson. While being the more conservative candidate helped Pearce win the primary, it will be fatal in the general election. Udall leads Pearce by more than 20 points. The Udall cousins are also cousins of Oregon's incumbent Senator, Gordon Smith.

Virginia: When conservative Republican, and former Governor, Jim Gilmore won the Republican Senate nomination (over more moderate Congressman Tom Davis), the Republicans all but lost the seat. Democratic nominee, and also former Governor, Mark Warner, is young, popular and has a huge fundraising advantage. He currently leads by over 20 points. Warner also has the same surname as the incumbent, Senator John Warner, who is retiring. This race is as certain a victory for Warner as elective politics get.

Conclusion

If August 14, 2008 were November 1, 2008, I believe that the Democrats would pick up eight seats for a total of 59. Not enough for a filibuster-proof majority, but if John McCain wins the White House, the Democratic Governor of Arizona, Janet Napolitano, gets to appoint number 60.

Current Senate Composition: 51 Democrats, 49 Republicans
8/14/08 Prediction: 59 Democrats, 41 Republicans

* While Senators Joseph Lieberman (I-Ct.) and Bernard Sanders (I-Vt.) are registered Independents, both caucus with the Democrats.